Evangeline Downs Friday Pick 5 April 29, 2022

Profile Picture: Kevin Kilroy

April 29th, 2022

The Fair Grounds 2.20.22 MSW race with Baseball Lover and Trader Price (both entered in legs of the Friday Pick 5 sequence) has cost me some money. The figures and the visual of the winner’s performance impressed me, but each horse has regressed coming out of it — costing me dough.

Regressed or inflated figures? We’ll call this type of race a mirage race: a key race at first glance, but turns out it was an illusion. We have two races in the Pick 5 sequence with horses from this mirage race who are set as 2-1 morning line favorites. It’s time we take a stand. Let’s build a ticket based on this opinion, recognizing that we have a situation where we can gain equity from this pool.

Race 5
2, 3, 5
1, 1A
6, 7, 8
Race 6
6, 7
Race 7
1, 4
3, 7
Race 8
2, 4
1, 5
Race 9

All As: $12

4 As and 1 B: $34

3 As and 2 Bs: $34

4 As and 1 C: $12

Or All As and All Bs: $96

Race 5: Dirt, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Clm 5000 4yo & up

A: #2 Guilty Again (12-1) looked sharp for his frontrunning return against a tough field. Should have the fitness to sustain the bid this time.

#3 Witch Doctor (3-1) benefited from a fast pace to run into last time, but was also caught wide. Hard to imagine another step-up at this age, but a repeat of last could win.

#5 Honorarian (10-1) wants to vie for the lead but was caught wide last time and couldn't get involved. Should be able to press Guilty Again and get first run.

B: #1/lA Shanghai Brother/Zcat’s Chatain (5-2) have both run races capable of winning against these, but both are equally likely to produce a dud. 

C: #6 Perfect Mistake (9-2), #7 Thunk (7-2), and #8 End Zone (8-1)

Race 6: Dirt, 6 1/2  Furlongs, Alw 26000N1X, statebred 3yo

A: #6 Mike J (7-2) scored the open-lengths victory after a layoff and should take another step up to compete against these in a big way. #7 Jeffrow (4-1) lost the lead but re-rallied and fought hard to win against open company last out — now time for statebreds. 

B: #5 Xanthus Wrath (12-1) comes out a second time from Dale White’s barn (26% winner second after the claim) after a morning bullet. Cid the Kid is up and should be used liberally in your picks.

Race 7: Dirt, 6 Furlongs, Md Sp Wt 25k, statebred 3yo & up

A: #1 Mr Elvin (5-2) would have won if longer last time. He gets the added distance here. #4 Half Magic (3-1) had to hit the brakes twice as the eventual winner cut into his lane before the turn last out. He has more.

B: #3 Cocal (5-1) has the first-time starter’s pedigree and recent bullet, though trainer Bunky Richards usually builds fitness in races. #7 Justa Buster (6-1) has hidden form after breaking through the gate last time out.

Race 8: Dirt, 1 Mile, OC 25k, 3yo & up

A: #2 City Park (4-1) makes his second start for Eduardo Ramirez (32% second after the claim). Form and figures are questionable in here, but fade Ramirez at your own risk, who is a 31% winner on the meet. #4 Flying Honeypot (2-1) was compromised by the far outside post, getting caught wide early. He has the figures and the form. 

B: #1 Pipes and Drums (5-2) was compromised by the outside post, relegated to the back, and caught wide throughout in a stout Delta Downs stakes last time out. #5 Boyfriend Material (12-1) has shown the early speed to send to the front against these presser and stalker types, and last time out he sat back in the gate and lost four lengths.

Race 9: Dirt, 1 Mile, Clm 5000N2Y, 3yo & up

A: #6 Overdeliver (5-2) makes his second start off a long layoff since joining Rylee Grudzien. Big time back class who should be able to capitalize on Evangeline Downs' one-mile frontrunning trend (65%).