Evangeline Downs: Pick 5 for Friday, April 22
How deep I go with a Pick 5 ticket depends on the return I think I can get. For example, Friday’s sequence: my strongest opinion is a 10-1 morning line that comes in the last leg, so I want to go deep early to make sure to be alive.
But, I see a chalk cloud threatening above three of the first four legs, so I won’t go wild. Instead, I will choose to play 10x units for my As, and 2x units for All As and Bs. My guess is the payout will be similar to last Thursday’s sequence at worst (16.40-1, .40-1, 3.30-1, 1.70-1, and 1.70-1 paying $946.80) but if we can hook a price early, times that by four.
All As: $2
All As and All Bs: $36
Race 5: Dirt 1 Mile 4 yo & up Clm 5000N2L
A: #1 Hot Stove League (7-2) is the lone speed with the best figures. He drops in class and returns to the surface where he got his one win.
B: #3 Mista Valentine (10-1) put a couple decent races together at Fair Grounds and deserves our attention in here. #6 We Need a Five (2-1) and #7 Far Out Time (12-1) are more of connections plays than anything else.
Race 6: Dirt 6 Furlongs Alw 24000N2L 3yo & up
A: #2 Silver Ratio (2-1) — the only other horse I am interested in is the Broberg entry, #7 Sun Striker (5-2). I prefer this one to the Broberg. Usually I would single; otherwise, I am paying too much for a chalky sequence. But I want to be alive to my single in the last leg, so I’ll use both.
Race 7: Dirt 1 Mile Md 12500 3yo statebred
A: #1 All Mike No Mae (8-5) almost hung on last out for his first win after pulling away by as many as 10 lengths and getting nailed late. Second go at two-turns at this level, and he should take one more step up. #1A And Fifty (8-5) takes the plunge from maiden special weight ranks while stretching out to two turns. Pedigree suggests sprint, but if he runs his race, then he should get the lead and have a classy shot at keeping separated from the pack.
B: #3 Flit N Flot Time (8-1) gets four workouts in since debut, drops in class, and goes two turns out of a 28% route dam. #5 More Harder (3-1) is consistent and just needs to take one step up to compete.
Race 8: Dirt 7 Furlongs Alw 28000N4L 4 yo & up statebred
A: #6 Jax Man (5-1) was a head short in the New Year's Day Delta Downs stakes going 7 1/2 furlongs. Back to a sprint distance, class relief, well bred and in top hands. #9 Hail State (8-1) gets class relief after a tough go last out. Great turf-to-dirt angle for the trainer, and Hail State has tactical options — I see him near the lead setting up for first run.
B: #3 Venn (3-1) throw out the last race and he fits in here.
Race 9: Dirt 6.5 Furlongs Md 20000 3 yo & up statebred
A: #4 Soulology (10-1) came out slow and was stuck way wide making a scintillating closing move to barely miss in his debut. This three-year-old gelding is sitting on a better effort, and this is a decent field with plenty of options for other bettors. I am playing the Pick 5 because this horse is in here, will offer value, so I might spread a little deeper in the previous legs.