Evangeline Downs Pick 5 Saturday, July 2: Singling a longshot 

Profile Picture: Kevin Kilroy

July 1st, 2022

It’s Fourth of July weekend, so let’s shoot off a longshot and watch the will pays explode. My strongest opinion in the sequence is 15-1 on the morning line. No way will we get that in the win pools, but still, the John Henry attracted stiff competition, and leaning on this longshot allows me to separate from the crowd while spreading in the other legs, where others will have to be skinny.

I’ll be bold in the first leg using two in a field where it is hard to make clear-cut distinctions, and I’ll pick back up in the Pick 4 if I get knocked out.

2, 6
6, 8
3, 5, 7
1, 2, 6
1, 5, 6
  • All As: $18
  • 4 As and 1 B: $69
  • 4 As and 1 C: $36

Race 4: Dirt, 7 furlongs Clm 10000N2L 3 yo & up

As: #2 Mucho Veloce (3-1) drops in class and returns to the surface where he broke his maiden. #6 Nate’s Revenge (8-1) is our other play, as Scott Gelner is hot, and he’s throwing the kitchen sink at this runner—turf to dirt and route to sprint, which he succeeds with 21% of his last 63 tries.

Race 5: Dirt, 5 furlongs MC 12500 3 yo & up fillies

As: #6 Just a Win (4-1) was way outmatched when finishing second last out. Switches to sprint on the turf, where the trainer excels. #8 Call Me Darlin (9-5) was way outmatched when finishing third last out. Switches to sprint on the turf, where the trainer excels.

Bs: #3 Good Girl Shorty (3-1) exits the same race as the As. Improved from first to second race—one more step up and she is a major player here. #5 Poseidon’s Queen (20-1) had a tough first outing, now switches barns and heads to the turf, which the pedigree supports. #7 Mydealoftheday (6-1) just put in an excellent work. Drops in class and gets a rider upgrade.

Race 6: Dirt, 7 furlongs Alw 20000s 3 yo & up

As: #1 Flat Out American (9-5) should have the lead and gets an upgrade to hot jock C.J. McMahon. #2 Blushinstreetdevil (5-1) returns to a winning distance and gets the jock who guided him back up. I am tempted to single #6 Leroy Jenkins (2-1) but being a closer, it feels too risky against some live frontrunners. 

B: #4 Lauri’s Wish (7-2) just popped his best speed figure after a layoff. Likely a bigger price than the morning line suggests.

Race 7: Dirt, 1 1/16 miles, John Henry S. 3 yo & up

A:  #3 Behemah Star (15-1) chased speed demon Maga Man last out, always a tough task, and still had enough to dig in for a game third trying turf for the first time. Behemah Star runs to win, and everything suggests he’ll take a big step up.

Race 8: Dirt 5 1/2 furlongs, Clm 5000N3L 3 yo & up fillies

As: #1 Becca’s Bouquet (2-1) cuts tag in half to level where she has won after dueling gamely last out against better. #5 Tensas Virginia (5-2) looked good winning two at Fair Grounds, now cuts in class and attracts Del Cid. I will press on #6 Knights Sword (5-2), who makes her second start for Karl Broberg after trying allowance turf company last out—all that adds up to a 41% trainer angle.