Evangeline Downs Pick 5: Wednesday April 13, 2022
Looking back at Evangeline Downs’ opening week trends leads us to spread in tonight’s maiden races. Seven prices came in at $13.40 or higher, and four of those were in maiden races. I have confidence in logicals winning races 4, 6, and 7, so I only made one horse an A in those legs. The strategy here is to fade the favorites in the maiden races, get a price home, and lean on the races which seem more predictable. Let’s start the week out swinging for a 4-digit score.
There is an eight race card tonight so the Pick 5 will begin with Race 4, 6:51 pm CT post time.
2, 4 , 7
1, 5, 8
2, 3, 9, 10
2, 4, 7, 8
1, 3, 9
- All As: $6
- 4 As and 1 B: $60
Race 4 Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs Clm 7500b fillies and mares 4yo & up
A: #6 Zydeco Music (3-1) towers over the field in terms of Brisnet Prime Power number. She will have first-run on whoever gets the lead and gets hot jock Vicente Del-Cid up.
B: #2 Kick N Kiss (10-1) finished second to Cave Creek, who ran a strong second next race here at EVD; #7 Jennifer’s Arch (15-1) is the quickest out of the gate and could wire this field.
Race 5 Dirt 5 Furlongs MC 12500 statebred fillies 3yo
A: We will spread big time in this maiden race trying to hook a price with our As but also trying to survive by putting the likely favorites in as Bs. #2 Zipity (4-1) has shown she knows what she is doing running within two lengths of front runners in her last two; #4 Boston Prospect (20-1) makes a class drop after showing early turn of foot and being freshened; and #7 Goodbye Rosie (8-1) debuts with a high first-time starter percentage pedigree and barn.
B: #1 Sugar Star (5-2) makes her third 3yo start off layoff from Ramirez; #5 Call Me Darlin (6-1) debuts with decent first-time starter percentage pedigree and barn; and #8 Mo Bella (2-1) is the likely chalk who has made solid improvements with each start and likely will do so again today.
Race 6 Dirt 1 Mile. OClm 10000 4yo & up
Let’s toss #1 Trivista (5-2) who will likely be on everyone’s ticket but makes his fourth start for a fourth new trainer and this field has some live wires.
A: #6 Two Mikes N Doc G (4-1) comes out fresh for Rylee Grudzien and should offer value compared to a few other logicals. Last out, he earned his fastest Brisnet Speed rating, an 83, and seems to be improving.
B: Let’s put our money through #2 Greeley Went West (15-1) who is in form and sets to make first start for last year’s leading trainer; #3 Guitar Slim (10-1) who has run a race that could beat this field; #9 Greeley’s Dealer (5-2) who won a stake at Delta two back; and #10 Question Authority (8-1) who looks for his 3rd win in a row.
Race 7 Dirt 1 Mile Clm 7500 (7.5-6.5) N2Y 3yo
A: #1 Baseball Lover (5-2) last out faced a field twice as stout as today’s. As the best speed of the speed, he will send from the rail. Single.
Race 8 Dirt 7 Furlongs MC 7500 fillies and mares 3yo & up
A: #2 Baby Lockout (15-1) ran sneakily well two-back but got blown out by a foe who would romp today. Good trainer percentages. #4 Two Punch Fist (3-1) looks like the lone speed, though by default. I wouldn't blame you for singling, or tossing this likely favorite altogether. #7 Lumberjack Empire (8-1) has shown a nice stretch kick, only needs a touch better break so there's not too much left to do late. #8 Conservative Values (12-1) makes her second start for Jeansonne and cuts back to sprint--hmmm, wonder if the trainer had this angle in mind (29%).
B: #1 It’s Time Baby (4-1) With a closer’s kick, she could appreciate the move away from Delta Downs. Morales gets another go on #3 Mon Danseur (15-1) and deserves to be considered here, could improve with a quicker start out of gate. #9 Ignite the Passion (10-1) makes her second career start for Ramirez and has every right to compete with this field.