Exotics plays for 2023 Bourbonette Oaks

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March 22nd, 2023

A top-five trainer at Turfway Park this meet, Brad Cox has entered a pair of intriguing fillies in Saturday’s $300,000 Bourbonette Oaks, a 1 1/16-mile All-Weather event that will award Kentucky Oaks (G1) qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 50-20-15-10-5 basis.

Cincinnati Trophy hero Botanical was named the morning line favorite among the field of 11, while #8 Flashy Gem is a 4-1 choice following a dominant score in an allowance optional claimer at this track on Feb. 16.

Below we offer a full field analysis and provide our best exotics plays — including exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets — for the 2023 Bourbonette Oaks for three-year-old fillies.

Bourbonette Oaks selections

  • #5 Botanical (2-1)
  • #2 Bolivie (5-1)
  • #8 Flashy Gem (4-1)

Bourbonette Oaks wagers

  • $5 Exacta: 5 with 2, 8 ($10)
  • $1.50 Trifecta: 5 with 2, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 8 ($9)
  • 20-cent Superfecta: 2, 5 with 2, 5, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 11 ($7.20)

#1 RENEGADE REBEL (6-1): The Mark Casse-trained Nyquist filly beat stablemate Ryder Ryder Ryder by a neck to win the Grade 3 Mazarine S. last out on Woodbine’s All-Weather, and the pacesetter has wired both starts at 8 1/2 furlongs. Casse is a 15% winner in non-graded stakes and a 14% winner with shippers, while regular rider Rafael Hernandez has a pair of victories and a narrow second with the gray three-year-old.

#2 BOLIVIE (5-1): The Irish-bred will make her first U.S. start for conditioner Brendan Walsh, who strikes at a 15% rate with horses making their first start with the trainer. The chestnut filly came home seven lengths in fourth at today’s distance when racing in France last October and has since placed second in two tries at a mile on All-Weather. Irad Ortiz Jr., a 29% winner with routes, will pick up the mount.

#3 OLYMPIC PRANK (20-1): The Into Mischief filly broke her maiden last out in her second career start, wiring a field of seven in a one-mile and 70-yard event on Gulfstream’s All-Weather while posting a career-best 78 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Saffie Joseph is a 22% winner with horses coming off a maiden victory and an 18% winner with shippers, but Olympic Prank’s Speed figures rank a bit low compared to today’s rivals.

#4 THIRTY THOU KELVIN (20-1): A daughter of leading freshman sire Bolt d’Oro, Thirty Thou Kelvin got up by a nose last out in an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream, then transferred to the barn of John Terranova, who has failed to win in his last nine tries with a horse making their first start with him. Irad Ortiz Jr. guided the three-year-old in her first two starts of the season, but Kazushi Kimura will inherit the mount for the Bourbonette. Thirty Thou Kelvin’s 88 BRIS figure last out at a mile and 70 yards is the highest speed figure among the field when running close to today’s distance, and it’s the third-highest last race speed rating.

#5 BOTANICAL (2-1): Since switching from turf to All-Weather, the Medaglia d’Oro daughter has dominated all three starts at a mile. Last out, she won the Cincinnati Trophy S. by 6 1/2 lengths and had plenty left in the tank to enjoy the stretch-out in distance. Trainer Brad Cox is a 29% winner with horses that won their last race and a 25% winner on All-Weather. Chris Landeros will stay in the saddle and is winning at a 16% rate this meet.

#6 ALWAYS AT EASE (30-1): The Twirling Candy filly has been racing at sprint distances in her last five, most recently finishing 2 1/4 lengths in fifth in the 6 1/2-furlong Valdale S. at Turfway. Her first two career starts were over a mile on turf, and the dark bay finished far back in fifth and seventh when trying a route. Jockey Kent Desormeaux will pick up the mount for his brother Keith, who wins at a 12% rate with horses going from short to long and a 10% rate in non-graded stakes.

#7 MISS NEW YORK (15-1): By freshman sire Good Magic, Miss New York made her first four starts in Europe before joining the barn of Jorge Delgado. In her second U.S. start, she broke her maiden at a mile and 70 yards on Gulfstream’s Tapeta, then finished a length third in an allowance optional claimer at a mile on turf. Last out, she scored a 2 1/4-length victory at seven furlongs on Tampa Bay Downs’ main track coming off a layoff. Delgado is a 22% winner in non-graded stakes and a 27% winner with shippers. Jose Morelos will pick up the mount, but he’s won just 9% of his last 279 route races.

#8 FLASHY GEM (4-1): Another Bolt d’Oro baby, Flashy Gem struggled on debut in a one-mile turf event at Ellis Park but rebounded to triumph by 5 1/2 lengths in a $60,000 maiden special weight at the same track. She shipped to Turfway to try All-Weather for her most recent start and romped to a six-length victory in an allowance optional claimer on Feb. 16. Cox’s second runner in the field, Flashy Gem recorded a 91 BRIS figure last out, tied with Botanical for the highest last race speed rating among the field. Chris Landeros was aboard Flashy Gem for her most recent win, but with Landeros opting to ride Botanical here, John Velazquez is named to ride Flashy Gem. Both Botanical and Flashy Gem have put in solid workouts leading up to the Bourbonette.

#9 SHEWILLGHOSTU (30-1): It took four tries for the Girvin filly to break her maiden, but she accomplished the feat when stretching out to a mile last out. The only closer among the field, Shewillghostu was full of run when winning by three lengths in the $70,000 maiden special weight at Turfway and will now move up to stakes company for trainer Eric Reed, a 7% winner this meet who is 0-for-37 in non-graded stakes. Last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Sonny Leon will pick up the mount.

#10 MEDAGLIA FOREVER (30-1): Another Medaglia d’Oro filly, the Rusty Arnold pupil has run twice in her career, both times on dirt, and was a neck shy of victory in an $84,000 maiden special weight last out at today’s distance. Arnold is just 1-for-25 this meet and 0-for-11 with horses switching from dirt to All-Weather. Medaglia Forever is also coming off a nearly two-month layoff and will get a rider switch to Fernando De La Cruz.

#11 AG BULLET (7-2): Trained by George Papaprodromou, Ag Bullet is 2-for-2 since switching to turf, with a 3 1/4-length victory when racing at 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita and a neck win in the Lady of Shamrock S. at the same track on Feb. 12. She’ll now try All-Weather in her third start off a layoff and will pick up jockey Umberto Rispoli, just a 5% winner with routes. The Twirling Candy daughter posted a sharp, five-furlong workout at Santa Anita on Sunday, but the surface switch and her outside post will likely cause her trouble.