Exploring the Feb. 9 Pick 6 carryovers at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

February 9th, 2021

Tuesday tends to be a quiet day for Thoroughbred horse racing, but today’s action is spiced up by a pair of enticing jackpot Pick 6 carryovers at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise.

Let’s dig in and check out the details:

Mahoning Valley: Buckeye Pick 6

Carryover amount: $58,846
Base bet: 20 cents
Sequence starts: Race 3, 1:40 p.m. ET
Number of entries: 56 (9.3 per race)

If you can uncover the right combination of longshot winners, you’ll have a very real chance to sweep the entire Buckeye Pick 6 carryover pool. The daily pools don’t tend to be huge, and the last two sequences (on Saturday and Monday) proved unpredictable enough that no one cashed a winning ticket, triggering 5-of-6 consolation payoffs while simultaneously growing the jackpot carryover pool.

For the most part, Tuesday’s sequence looks straightforward. Favorites appear formidable throughout the card, though if you want to play outside the box a little bit, #1 Tap the Town (4-1) in Race 6 and #3 Just U and Me Kid (3-1) in Race 7 both have live chances to reach the winner’s circle, as we outlined in our picks and plays for Tuesday.

But if you really want to dig deep for a double-digit longshot winner, check out Race 8, where 11 fillies and mares are entered to sprint six furlongs in a $4,000 claiming race. #8 Sun Dress (5-2) is the morning line favorite, but she’s hardly a standout from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective.

#7 Crisis Averted (20-1), for example, is similarly fast and has been freshened since a pair of disappointing efforts last summer. Trainer Michael Sullivan wins at a respectable 11% rate with runners returning from long layoffs, and hot jockey Christian Pilares picks up the mount. Spreading deep with horses like Crisis Averted might be the best way to survive the final leg of the Buckeye Pick 6.

Turf Paradise: Grand Canyon Pick 6 Jackpot

Carryover amount: $139,795
Base bet: 20 cents
Sequence starts: Race 4, 3:57 p.m. ET
Number of entries: 61 (10.2 per race)

The larger of the two Pick 6 carryovers is up for grabs at Turf Paradise, where four dirt races and a pair of turf tests comprise the sequence. Large fields are par for the course, with a couple of nine-horse events ranking as the lightest contests in this competitive handicapping challenge.

Even if you conclude the favorites are tough and constructing a unique winning ticket is unlikely, the Grand Canyon Pick 6 is well worth playing. Monday’s sequence featured six winners under 10-1 (including a trio of heavy favorites), yet the $1,527.84 payoff far exceeded the $902.70 that would have been generated by a theoretical $2 win parlay.

The shortest-priced favorite in Tuesday’s Pick 6 is #3 Dopo Lavoro (2-1) in Race 6, a $15,000 allowance optional claiming race. Trainer Justin Evans and jockey Luis Negron have won at a 45% rate together over the last two months, stamping Dopo Lavoro as a logical choice after winning against similar company on Jan. 26. But as we outlined in our picks and plays for Tuesday, #1 Big Barrel (6-1) is a viable alternative while making his first start for trainer Dan McFarlane, who strikes at a 44% rate with runners he claimed last time out.

The most valuable horse in the sequence might be #5 My Crafty Gal (6-1), who loom as a possible single in Race 5, a $7,500 allowance optional claiming race held over 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. My Crafty Gal has been racing on dirt as of late and was actually vanned off after being eased in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance sprint on Jan. 13. But My Crafty Gal has come back to post two fast workouts and should thrive while returning to the Turf Paradise turf, over which she boasts an excellent 7-4-2-0 record.

Good luck!