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Homeracing

Factors That Matter

Profile Picture: Derek Simon

Derek Simon

March 27th, 2015

In his groundbreaking work, “Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping,” Dr. William L. Quirin educated a generation of horse players on which factors did — and, in some cases, which factors did not — lead to a winning performance on the racetrack.

Through the use of impact values — nifty little ratios that compared the percentage of winners possessing a given characteristic with the percentage of entrants possessing that same characteristic — Quirin was able to quantify handicapping influences that, in the past, were spoken of entirely in subjective terms.

Suddenly, a “good” last race had numerical impact; the influence of a top speed figure could be analyzed and assessed.

For a long time, those who have used my various handicapping reports have asked for similar stats and, because I’m offering some free reports (see below) for this weekend’s big races, I though today would be the perfect day to better explain how predictive some of the report data really is.

Let’s take a look at my Win Factor Report first:


As I’ve long asserted, one can see that both reliability and profitability increase as the Win Factor Ratings and Race Ratings do the same.

Now, let’s take a peek at some Pace Profile Report digits:

As one might expect, a superior (1+) speed ranking and/or LSR ranking produce the best results, while top early speed (ESR) horses win only slightly more than expected.

Weekend Reports

Below are links to my Preceived Ability Report, Pace Profile Report and Win Factor Report and Pace Profile Report for Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park on 3/28/15:

FG032815PAR
FG032815PPR
FG032815WFR
GP032815PAR
GP032815PPR
GP032815WFR

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