Fair Grounds: Horses to single in the $4,889 Pick 6 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

January 21st, 2023

The stakes-packed Saturday card at Fair Grounds just got even better. The $1 Pick 6 culminating with the Lecomte (G3) features a $4,889 carryover.

The sequence gets underway in Race 9 at 5:00 p.m. ET. Planning to play along? We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of singles worth building tickets around:

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles): #8 Mobster (3-1)

Mobster hasn’t missed the trifecta in his first three starts against maiden special weight competition, even while facing some tough rivals. On Nov. 26, he ran second in a seven-furlong dash at Churchill Downs, beaten three lengths by the promising Gun Pilot. On Dec. 26, Mobster ran second in a 1 1/16-mile heat at Fair Grounds behind Banishing, the favorite to win an allowance optional claimer this Saturday at Fair Grounds.

These runner-up finishes produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 84 and 86, with the latter number ranking as the highest in Saturday’s field. Trainer Mark Casse has been hot at Fair Grounds this meet, going 3-for-11 (27%), and Mobster appears likely to add another win to Casse’s tally.

Race 12: Silverbulletday S.: #5 Chop Chop (8-5)

This Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier appears ripe for conquest by Chop Chop. Trainer Brad Cox has been on fire at Fair Grounds, going 15-for-34 (44%) this meet, and Chop Chop has already proven her worth at a high level.

Indeed, Chop Chop won the Juvenile Fillies S. over the Kentucky Downs turf course as a two-year-old, then followed up with a narrow runner-up finish in the Darley Alcibiades (G1) on dirt at Keeneland. That effort stamped Chop Chop as the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and while Chop Chop finished last that day, it’s worth noting the Alcibiades form otherwise held up strongly. Wonder Wheel, Raging Sea, and Sabra Tuff—who crossed the wire first third, and fifth in the Alcibiades—returned to finish first, third, and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

It’s hard to say why Chop Chop misfired in the Breeders’ Cup, but she’s been freshened since then and picks up hot jockey Florent Geroux for her return. Geroux has gone 14-for-42 (33%) at Fair Grounds this meet and 14-for-35 (40%) riding for Cox over the last two months, so we’ll single Chop Chop in the Pick 6.

Good luck!