Fair Grounds: Horses to single (or not) in the $3,565 Pick 6 carryover
The best chance for a single arguably comes right off the bat in Race 4, a one-mile allowance for Louisiana-bred three-year-olds. #3 Z Resurrection (2-1) performed well in a trio of sprints at Fair Grounds last year, running second in his debut before dominating a maiden special weight and finishing second in the six-furlong Louisiana Futurity.
The only horse who has defeated Z Resurrection is Jack Hammer, a promising Louisiana-bred youngster with an unbeaten 2-for-2 record. Z Resurrection put up a good fight against Jack Hammer in the Louisiana Futurity, dueling for five furlongs before staying on to finish only 2 1/4 lengths behind.
Z Resurrection posted a 90 Brisnet Speed rating in his maiden victory, the highest figure in Saturday’s field by eight points. Trainer James Hodges wins at a 46% rate with horses stretching out in distance off back-to-back sprints, so we’ll count on Z Resurrection to deliver victory in the first leg of the Pick 6.
In contrast, we’ll steer clear of singling obvious favorite #6 Boss’ Dialin In (8-5) in Race 9, a maiden special weight taking place over six furlongs on dirt. Boss’ Dialin In hasn’t missed the board in five starts sprinting over this track and class level, but his three runner-up finishes indicate he has a tendency to settle for the minor awards rather than battle for victory.
Boss’ Dialin In is worth including in the Pick 6, but we prefer the chances of #3 Overanalytical (6-1) at a much better price. After spending his first five starts competing on synthetic and turf, Overanalytical switched to dirt for a $30,000 maiden claimer on Dec. 18 at Fair Grounds and ran an improved race. Dashing six furlongs in his first start off an 11-month break, Overanalytical rallied nicely from sixth place to finish second by a neck, earning an 85 Brisnet Speed rating faster than Boss’ Dialin In’s career-best 84 rating.
If Overanalytical improves at all in his second start back, he can spring a surprise against Boss’ Dialin In, even while stepping up in class. A 6-1 upset would add value to the Pick 6 sequence.