Fair Grounds: How to bet the $12,855 Pick 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

March 13th, 2021

The Saturday card at Fair Grounds just got a little more interesting.

Although the competitive 10-race slate doesn’t feature any stakes races, a $12,855 carryover in the Late Pick 5 is reason enough to review the past performance and put together a play.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence:

Race 6: $17,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards)

#6 Powder Break (9-2) was a flashy maiden winner over this track two months ago. #7 Sweet Blindness (4-1) hasn’t missed the trifecta in her last four starts, including two over this class level. And #8 Break At Dawn (7-2) rallied strongly to win an allowance race over this distance at Remington Park last fall. All three have run fast enough to win the opening leg of the Pick 5, so we’ll use them all in equal strength.

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf)

#4 Glory to Me (4-1) has posted solid Brisnet Speed ratings while finishing second in three of her four starts, all on dirt. She’ll be tough to beat if she handles turf, but just in case the surface switch proves problematic, we’ll back her up with #6 World War (8-1) and #7 Gifted Talent (5-2).

Race 8: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs)

#5 Coltonator (3-1) finished second over this track, distance, and class level on Feb. 16, beaten less than a length with a sharp 95 Brisnet Speed rating. But #3 Digital (5-2) has shown flashes of significant talent sprinting, and the son of leading sire Into Mischief can fire a big shot in his first start since September.

Race 9: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on turf)

In a race containing many runners with uninspiring turf resumes, #3 Papa’s Boy (7-2), #5 Stuck in Vegas (9-2), #6 The Mo U No (9-2), #7 Guitar Tribute (6-1), and #9 Mangelsen (6-1) look like the main players. But since they’re difficult to split, we’ll spread deep and include them all.

Race 10: $20,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs)

We’ll end the sequence with a single. #6 Big Bella Brown (3-1) has tactical speed, owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in the field, and enters off a runner-up effort over this track and distance on Feb. 20. Trainer Edward Johnston wins at a 20% rate with horses running for the second time after a claim, and Big Bella Brown breezed a bullet half mile in :47 3/5 on Mar. 4. The son of Big Brown is clearly the horse to beat.

The Ticket

Race 6, 50-cent Pick 5: 6,7,8 with 4,6,7 with 3,5 with 3,5,6,7,9 with 6 ($45)

Good luck!