Fair Grounds Pick 5 Carryover Analysis for December 16
The action kicks off early at Fair Grounds on Wednesday starting in the opener. A Pick 5 carryover of $27,704 will be added to the pool that begins in Race 1, and the sequence looks like it could yield some healthy results.
$5,000 Claiming (2:00 p.m. E.T.)
State-bred runners will go 5 1/2 furlongs in the opener. With the probability of a fast and contested pace in the dash, I will give top billing to #7 Cryptozonic (3-1). Zong gelding makes his second run since being claimed by Foster, and he appears to have the best turn of foot in the field to capitalize on dueling leaders. Class dropper gets a positive rider change to Murrill, too.
Competitive turf sprint for fillies and mares will see seven at the gate. While this has the look of an ‘all’ selection for me, I am most intrigued with a duo in the heat.
If #1 Aiken to Be (4-1) can rate early on, then I think that she will be tough to deny late with her best showing. Robertson-trained chestnut has placed in four-of-six local engagements, and the class drop that she takes is a considerable one.
#6 Ragatagtag (9-2) showed me enough in a turf sprint locally over a ‘good’ course two back to include in this tilt, as well. First Dude filly has never run a bad one from four career tries on the green, and she runs for a conditioner who wins at a 23 percent rate off of layoffs of this nature.
Compact field of six fillies and mares will travel six panels on the dirt in the middle leg. The Grant Forster-trained #5 Shilah Baby (7-2) has been trounced in her last pair of her appearances, but I think that she will be a huge factor while making her Fair Grounds debut.
Graydar 4-year-old is the pace of the race and could easily lead throughout at a nice number beneath James Graham. She will be a single for me on one ticket on the class drop.
$30,000 Maiden Claiming
An octet of sophomore fillies will vie in the grassy affair going one-mile on the green. I think a pair of 3-year-olds in the field offer very good value and are worth inclusion on the ticket.
Larry Jones’ #2 Creative Legacy (6-1) has been fairly consistent on the main surface in 2020, and she lands in a nice spot to get back on the weeds. Creative Cause lass deserves another look on turf with Santana taking the reins.
#5 Crazy Good (6-1) wouldn’t be a surprise, either. Hugh Robertson second timer drops from the special weight ranks while making her grassy bow on this occasion. Chestnut has two turf-winning siblings, and this outfit is a capable 11% first time trying the lawn, as well.
$12,500 Maiden Claiming
Seven will go postward in the route event, and the trio of morning-line horses look tough to overcome in the final leg. I expect the winner of the race to come from the trio of #1 Make’n Tracks (5-2), #3 Guardsman Pass (7-2), and #6 Deanos Cape (2-1).