Favorites Help Keep 255 Alive To $1-Million

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TwinSpires Staff

March 3rd, 2014

If going into the $1-million Road To the Kentucky Derby Showdown game I had told you that the favorite would hit the board in each of the first six races, what percentage of starting players would you expect to be alive?

88.9% of the pool eliminated from the grand prize sounds like a lot, but it’s about what you’d expect with the favorite “advancing” in each leg. Put another way, 11% of the starting players remain, which works out to about 69.27% of all players advancing each race. If you figure a favorite typically takes 40%-50% of the show pool then that’s 19%-29% divided among the other two horses on the board, then we’re actually right where you’d expect to be.

If each of the 255 players remaining has a 69.27% chance of advancing each race, then there is an 88.5% chance that at least one player will be alive for the $1-million following the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on April 19 at Keeneland and a 77.6% chance that at least one person will win the grand prize two weeks later following the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands at Churchill Downs, but drop the percentage down to 60% and there’s only a 28.3% chance that one player will be alive for the $1-million and a 18.1% chance that someone will win it.

If the trend continues exactly, then there will be two players alive for the $1-million following the Lexington

Speaking of two people alive, that is how many remain in the @twinspires #tsSHOWdown last longest competition for $500, as both @fakemaven and @JBOswald68 road Uncle Sigh to week four—a pick that continued the trend of the surviving pair shying away from favorites, as @fakemaven has used only one favorite (Enterprising in the El Camino Real Derby) among his six selections, and @JBOswald has used just two (the aforementioned  Enterprising and Strong Mandate in the Southwest Stakes). Uncle Sigh also marks the third time the pair agreed on their picks, as in addition to Enterprising and Uncle Sigh they both used Risen Star Stakes winner Intense Holiday last week.

Both races in week four of SHOWdown are Saturday: the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs and the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park. As always, we’ll have FREE Ultimate Past Performances with comments.

Even if you’re not one of the 255 players alive for the $1-million, there’s 2,146 players with at least one correct and thus live to a share in the $10,000 Kentucky Derby consolation pool. Of those players, 415 players have five correct and are very much in the hunt for the Derby and Oaks tickets and Derby merchandise prizes available to those with the most correct going into the Derby itself.