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Homeracing

Fifth Season S. exotics plays and field analysis for Oaklawn Jan. 14

Profile Picture: Ashley Anderson

January 12th, 2023

A competitive field of 10 will race one mile over the Oaklawn Park dirt in the $150,000 Fifth Season S. for four-year-olds and up.

2021 Pat O’Brien (G2) hero Ginobili opened as the 7-5 morning line favorite and will compete against last year’s Fifth Season S. champ Rated R Superstar and a handful of graded stakes-placed runners.

Below we examine the full Fifth Season S. field and offer our best exotics plays — including exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets — for the upcoming stakes event, listed as Race 9 on Oaklawn’s Saturday card.

Fifth Season S. selections

  • #1 Soy Tapatio (9-2)
  • #8 Ginobili (7-5)
  • #3 Heart Rhythm (12-1)

Fifth Season S. exotics

  • $5 Exacta: 1 with 3, 8 ($10)
  • $1.50 Trifecta: 1 with 3, 8 with 2, 3, 4, 8, 10 ($12)
  • 20-cent Superfecta: 1, 8 with 1, 3, 8 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10 with 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10 ($12.20)

#1 SOY TAPATIO (9-2): The Not This Time five-year-old is a neck shy of three straight victories in his last three while running between 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 miles. The gelding will now cut back in distance in his first try at Oaklawn and romped to a 6 1/2-length win at today’s distance five back in the Manitoba Mile before finishing fourth by 1 3/4 lengths as the favorite in the Century Mile H. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a 23% winner with shippers and a 21% winner in non-graded stakes, plus he’s winning at a 30% clip at Oaklawn this meet. Cristian Torres will inherit the mount and has won 36% of his rides when paired up with Diodoro over the last two months. Soy Tapatio also drew a favorable post position, as the rail post is winning at a 24% rate, and the dark bay posted a sharp, five-furlong workout ahead of this event.

#2 RUNNIN' RAY (8-1): The seven-year-old Street Sense gelding finished just three-quarters of a length back in fifth last out in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer while posting a 93 Brisnet Speed rating at Churchill Downs Nov. 13. In his three previous tries at today’s distance on dirt, the Joe Sharp pupil won twice and placed 2 1/4 lengths in third, all at Oaklawn, and is 6-3-1-1 for his career at a mile. Martin Garcia will hop back in the saddle in Runnin’ Ray’s return to this track. The pacesetter can contend for the minor awards.

#3 HEART RHYTHM (12-1): The son of Flat Out has been sprinting between six and seven furlongs in his last five and will race at a mile for the second time in his career. The five-year-old won by a length three back at 6 1/2 furlongs while recording a 99 Brisnet Speed rating, then finished second by half a length and third by more than four lengths when running six furlongs. Trainer John Ortiz is a 16% winner with horses going from back-to-back sprints to a route, and new rider Rafael Bejarano is a 23% winner this meet. Heart Rhythm owns a 4-2-1-0 record at Oaklawn and went 10-3-2-2 during his four-year-old campaign.

#4 HELLO HOT ROD (12-1): The five-year-old pacesetter has three victories and a second from four starts at today’s distance and was last seen finishing fourth to Rated R Superstar, who re-opposes here, by 2 1/4 lengths when weakening in the stretch in the one-mile, 70-yard Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial S. He won his last two at a mile, both at Remington Park, and will make his first start at Oaklawn. Trainer Shawn Davis is an 18% winner with routes and a 16% winner with non-graded stakes. Nik Juarez — a 19% winner this meet — will pick up the mount.

#5 DREAMER'S DISEASE (20-1): Uncle Mo grandson Dreamer’s Disease will stretch back out to a mile after wiring a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Delta Downs. Two back, he wired the Delta Mile S. at the same track to earn his second victory in four starts at today’s distance. Trainer Ricky Courville is a 15% winner in non-graded stakes but a 6% winner with horses that won their last race. Casey Fusilier is a 12% winner with routes and a 14% winner with pacesetter types.

#6 RATED R SUPERSTAR (4-1): The 10-year-old gelding rallied to win by half a length in the Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial S. at Remington Park last out for trainer Martin Villafranco in his first start off a layoff. The Kodiak Kowboy son will return to Oaklawn, where he’s 22-5-5-1, and has an 8-1-1-2 record at today’s distance with a career-best 101 Speed rating.

#7 SEIZE THE NIGHT (20-1): The lightly-raced longshot wired a one-mile allowance at Oaklawn last out to earn his second career victory. He’ll move up in class in his third career start for D. Wayne Lukas, an 8% winner with horses that won their last race and just a 6% winner in non-graded stakes. Mickaelle Michel will stay in the saddle and wins at a 9% rate with routes.

#8 GINOBILI (7-5): The morning line favorite was a head second in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Del Mar in which he flashed a 100 Speed figure in his first start with trainer Peter Miller, a 25% winner with non-graded stakes. The Munnings gelding has a win and a second in three tries at today’s distance and was a distant second to Life Is Good in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). He followed up that placing with a sixth in the Cigar Mile H. (G1), then did not race for 11 months after, when he made his debut with Miller. The six-year-old will make his first start in nearly two months and is 0-for-2 at Oaklawn. Ricardo Santana Jr., a 23% winner this meet, is named to ride.

#9 KING FURY (10-1): The multiple stakes winner has not won since September 2021 at Churchill Downs when racing 1 3/16 miles and has since gone 0-for-7. The Kenny McPeek five-year-old ran at 1 1/8 miles in his last three, finishing a distant third at best, and will cut back in distance to race at a mile for the first time while putting blinkers back on. David Cabrera will stay in the irons and is 3-for-4 paired with McPeek over the last 14 days. The Curlin son also posted a sharp, four-furlong workout in preparation of this race.

#10 SILVER PROSPECTOR (20-1): The War Front grandson was sixth by more than six lengths in the one-mile Ack Ack (G3) last out and now drops in class for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has won at a surprising 5% rate at Oaklawn this meet. The six-year-old graded stakes champ is just 1-for-7 at today’s distance and 1-for-9 at Oaklawn but may improve with first-time blinkers and the addition of jockey Francisco Arrieta, a 17% winner this meet. The longshot has also posted a couple of bullet workouts ahead of Saturday’s outing and flashed a 101 Speed rating when winning at a mile four back in the Steve Sexton Mile (G3).

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