Finding my value horse in Pool 5 of the KDFW
The fifth and final pool of the 2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) will take place this weekend. It opened on Friday at noon (ET) and will close on Sunday at 6 p.m.
Four individual entries are listed at single-digit odds, and the quartet is a formidable bunch. #7 Essential Quality (3-1), #8 Greatest Honour (4-1), #4 Concert Tour (9-2), and #12 Hot Rod Charlie (6-1) are all equipped with an abundance of quality and each is deserving of their respective early odds. But with more than five weeks until the Run for the Roses, the search for value continues as a bevy of things could go wrong with any horse between now and May 1.
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I am looking at the Wood Memorial S. (G2) on April 3 for my Future Wager horse, as the field is coming up loaded with multiple contenders in the KDFW that are pointing for the Aqueduct feature.
#5 Crowded Trade (30-1), #18 Prevalence (20-1), #20 Risk Taking (30-1), and #23 Weyburn (30-1) are all likely to converge on the Empire State next weekend, and I couldn’t fault anyone who tabbed one on the list. My preference is with the latter.
Weyburn didn't look like anything extraordinary in his two-year-old season from a trio of maiden special weight races, capped by a tally on Dec. 5 over a sloppy surface at Aqueduct. Trained by Jimmy Jerkens, the Chiefswood Stable homebred returned off the layoff to face a strong group in the Gotham S. (G3) and came out on top in game fashion. The Ontario-bred held off a pair of very talented runners to earn his initial black-type tally, and I don’t think that we have seen the best of him as of yet.
By Pioneerof the Nile, the dark bay colt should only improve in his second start of 2021. While he is a half-brother to the fine sprinter Yorkton, Weyburn is from a superb female line with stamina influences throughout it. Additional distance will benefit the improving three-year-old.
Considering that the colt has already posted a robust 104 Brisnet Speed number, and that he could absolutely improve in his first run around two turns next weekend, Weyburn makes a lot of sense as a value play in Pool 5 of the KDFW.