Five Breeders' Cup longshots to follow
You can't pick 'em all. Now that my and other colleagues' Breeders' Cup top three selections are publicly available inside the TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Betting Guide, it's still worth noting a few horses who, though they didn't quite make my personal cut, might still prove dangerous at a price. These were hard eliminations to make, but I'll still be respecting their chances this weekend by including them in vertical and/or horizontal exotics wagers. Juvenile Turf Sprint #4 STILLWATER COVE (20-1), one of several fillies in the field from the Wesley Ward barn, sprung a 10-1 upset over her more highly-regarded stablemate #9 CHELSEA CLOISTERS at Saratoga two back, and last time found the one-mile Natalma (G1) at Woodbine just a bit too far for her liking, though a four-length beat by La Pelosa was no disgrace. "She handles the soft turf well," said Ward on Wednesday in advance of a forecasted two-day deluge of rain in Louisville. "She has one of the fastest figures in the race when she won with authority at Saratoga. If she repeats that race, she'll be very tough." Turf Sprint Another filly to watch against males is #8 CHANTELINE (15-1), who takes her spot off back-to-back wins in the Smart N Fancy at Saratoga and the Franklin County (G3) at Keeneland. Unlike #1 RUBY NOTION, who beat her two lengths over soft ground at Saratoga in July, Chanteline is unlikely to be buried on the inside as she'll break from the middle of the field. Her recent BRIS Speed ratings also compare favorably with course specialists #2 BUCCHERO and #13 WILL CALL. Dirt Mile He's been in so-so form of late, but a one-turn Dirt Mile should be right up the alley of #5 AWESOME SLEW (15-1). Winner of the course-and-distance Ack Ack in 2017 and a narrow loser of the last two runnings of the Churchill Downs (G2), he was forced to rate much closer the pace than usual in his Ack Ack title defense last time and had no kick for the end. The third-place finisher in this race at Del Mar a year ago at 14-1, he could sneak into the Tri or Super again. TwinSpires Sprint I already tabbed #8 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL (6-1) as one to consider in a different forum, but the Sprint has come up so tough again this year that some choices had to be made. An imposing six-for-eight record over the Churchill strip is his primary selling point. Ultimately, he seems the type that would be more effective at seven furlongs than six, and that's why I'm more likely to use him underneath. Turf In perhaps a significant oversight on my part, I chose not to include #5 MAGICAL (10-1) in my top three though the last time a heavily favored Arc winner was upset in the Turf it was by a three-year-old filly trained by Aidan O'Brien (Found over Golden Horn in 2015). Some of my colleagues were not so suspect before filing selections as she's getting good at the right time, handles the distance, and more than likely Saturday's course conditions. Although I did go in a different direction, it wouldn't surprise if she proves the second best Euro invader (or better) in the field.