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Homeracing

Gulfstream Park: How to bet the $5,572 Super High 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

July 10th, 2022

Attention, carryover fans! You’re advised to check out the Sunday card at Gulfstream Park, which opens with a $5,572 non-jackpot Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Race 1.

The opener is a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for Florida-bred juveniles, and for the most part, narrowing down the key contenders seems pretty straightforward.

Among the experienced entrants, morning line favorite #7 Malcoms On the Run (5-2) warrants respect. After finishing second in his debut in an open maiden special weight for juveniles at Gulfstream, Malcoms On the Run dropped into the state-bred ranks and finished third by less than one length.

The only problem is, Malcoms On the Run earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 75 and 76 in his first two starts, and both figures rank well below the 84 rating that stands as the par winning figure for Sunday’s conditions. Malcoms On the Run is a key contender to finish on the board, but his modest Brisnet Speed ratings suggest this maiden heat might be ripe for an upset from a first-time starter.

An obvious threat among the unraced entrants is #6 Scandalissimo (4-1), whose trainer—Jorge Delgado—has gone 8-for-27 (27%) debuting juveniles over the Gulfstream main track since 2017. Scandalissimo has put together a solid work tab highlighted by a swift half-mile in :47 3/5, and jockey Chantal Sutherland has gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up with Delgado over the last two weeks.

#8 Pitale (9-2) also has strong stats in his corner. Trainer Ralph Nicks has gone 24-for-118 (20%) debuting two-year-olds over the Gulfstream dirt since 2017, and the progeny of sire Kantharos win at a solid 15% rate on debut.

But as far as trainer stats are concerned, #4 D Coldest (6-1) is arguably the most formidable contender of all. Rohan Crichton’s overall 17% win rate with first-time starters jumps to 32% (from an 8-for-25 record) with juveniles debuting on dirt at Gulfstream since 2017. Furthermore, D Coldest is a son of Gary D, who sires 28% winners from first-time starters.

Let’s play Scandalissimo, Pitale, and D Coldest on top of our Super High 5 ticket.

  • $1 Super High 5: 4,6,8 with 4,6,7,8 with 4,6,7,8 with 3,4,6,7,8 with 2,3,4,6,7,8 ($72)

Good luck!

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