Gun Runner’s Speed Rating for winning Louisiana Derby Changed to 100

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Ed DeRosa

April 27th, 2016

Occasionally, when the following conditions are present, we are compelled to update the speed figures of a past race (e.g. Louisiana Derby):

(1) When the original variant was deemed questionable for some reason (e.g. in a close call, the original variant was either 'split' or 'not split');

(2) the subsequent follow-up starts of the runners strongly confirm the original figure was inflated (or deflated)

On March 26 at Fair Grounds, either every horse ran faster in 1 1/8-mile races and then ran slower than expected next time out, or assigned the wrong Speed Rating to those nine-furlong races on Louisiana Derby day.

Given the Speed Ratings horses have earned since running again, has decided to downgrade those March 26 performances, including changing the Speed Rating for Gun Runner’s Louisiana Derby victory from a 104 to a 100.

It’s a significant change because Gun Runner no longer possesses the best last-out Speed Rating, which has won five of the past 16 Derbys and produced a positive flat-bet profit. Gun Runner’s downgrade means Exaggerator has the best last-out Speed Rating in this field with a 102 from winning the Santa Anita Derby.

The second-through-fourth-place finishers in this year’s Louisiana Derby—Tom’s Ready, Dazzling Gem, and Mo Tom, respectively—are also pointing to this year’s Kentucky Derby, though Dazzling Gem needs defections following his fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.

For updated Ultimate Past Performances of this year’s prospective Kentucky Derby field, CLICK HERE.

For an explanation of’s Speed Ratings, CLICK HERE.

For Kentucky Derby & Oaks handicapping reports, CLICK HERE.