Hambletonian Oaks Elims Chart Fillies’ Fates At Meadowlands; Colts Still Wrestling At Yonkers, Meadows
All fields feature Hambletonian-eligible horses = (e). Eliminations for the Hambletonian Oaks are on the July 27 program at the Meadowlands. Each of two races is worth $50,000. Nine fillies go to post for elim one, a few of them surprises, being unfamiliar to the general flow of fillies in the division that we have followed since May. Does that matter? Many will ask, since Evident Beauty (e), groomed for this event and the final, will leave from post 1. She rides for Nifty Norman and with the biggest bankroll and press accolades. Maybe it will matter, since Millies Possesion (e), winner of eight races in eight starts , is a threat few thought would get this far. Millies Possesion, from the Jim Campbell camp, may not have even been asked yet and though she may have to be asked here, we put her odds of being in the final at 1-20. As for winning, we will take her here, since she towers over all in the field aside from Evident Beauty. The 8 hole, we hope, affects her odds to our advantage. Bets are going to be placed on the current hot horse, Seaside Bliss (e), as well as support will go to Asiago (e), Queen Of Trixs (e) and Starita (e). All of this may make Evident Beauty an underlay and Millies Possesion an overlay. The second elim has the other 10 fillies drawing in. Three of them have yet to win in 2019. The most wins of any in the field are four from Southwind Casha (e), an unexpected entry. Ake Svanstedt has chosen Personal Paradise (e) as only his second filly to draw in (he trains Golden Tricks (e) in the first elim). The Ice Dutchess (e) is here. She did not return at three with the class she had at two, but she has won two of five and been third three times for Nancy Johansson. Here, however, we do not expect her to shine. From the start of the season we supported Sweet Chapter (e) and she has been competitive but unable to surely impress us. She is the top earner, though. Marcus Melander will try to win the “Oaks” and the Hambo, going here with Miss Trixton. Those two have each scored two times to win, place and show, but Miss Trixton has earned just half of the purse money gained by Sweet Chapter. That does not necessarily prove Sweet Chapter is better, since the purses were classier for Sweet Chapter and she won much more in all paying finish positions (it’s due to the sires-stakes program’s wealth). The biggest surprise for us is that this Oaks herd is void of a Trond Smedshammer entry. We did not see that coming. Lastly, we mention our suggested contender—Could Nine Fashion. Jim Campbell’s filly has raced only four times, with a win and a second. He seems to have groomed her for this event and she could wind up being bet behind the two top money-earners, giving backers a fine price in a field she certainly may dominate if she peaks. On the Meadows’ Adios program, July 27, an Arden Downs stakes for soph-colt trotters goes for $40,000. This is the last chance four in the field have a chance to convince connections they should race in two weeks at the Meadowlands. Their work is cut out for them here. Goes Down Smooth (e) has been racing well with wins in half of his 10 starts but here he must leave from post 8. Mass Fortune K (e) has not won a race at three and even a win here makes it unlikely he will be in the Hambo mix. Ginger Tree Skyr (e) has not likened a chance in seven starts to look good enough to compete against the division’s top ones. Whirl Winds K (e) is a longshot, at best, to make the money needed to take next week seriously. As well, each of them, like the three left, have to beat Kate’s Massive. He will be a short price but perhaps still an overlay. Boosting a bet with him may work with Goes Down Smooth second, as the combo we support. A pair of New York Sires Stakes (NYSS) races on July 27 carries $85,000-plus for colts. Eight are at the gate in the first division, where Cavill Hanover (e) returns from a strong win and points more directly to #Hambo19. It looks like a clear path, too, as he meets a field of non-eligible colts. Among them are minor threats—Winnerup being the toughest. Livinonthedash (e) and Jason’s Camden (e) are still looking forward to spots in the Hambo heats. The latter has done well under the radar of some others in the division. Julie Miller’s colt has won six of eight and quietly scooped up a big bankroll. He may come up a good price here against the other eligible and the others, who will get their fair shares of support. On July 27 at the Meadowlands 11 colts make their final statements before entering or passing the trotting classic in a single Reynolds Stakes worth $81,200. The field of 12 (just one colt is ineligible) features a few “on-the-edge” from the division, a couple real good ones but none of the Melanderers, those three gripping colts, two of which are unbeaten. In this field is a colt we have had much success with from the start of the season and who can win this as well as put some step into the Melanderers next week. That colt is Mr Vicktor (e). Certainly, he is the best here. Win or not, he should show up in the elims, but a win here would give him the kind of respect he has only gotten from us and bettors in New York. Among these, Mr Vicktor could offer a good price. After all, Sheena’s Boy (e) and Cantab Fashion (e) and Swandre The Giant (e) will be taking action and the field is big enough to spread some bets around. Hambletonian Trail TOP TEN July 15 1. Gimpanzee 2. Greenshoe 3. Green Manalishi S 4. Mr. Vicktor 5. Marseille 6. Swandre The Giant 7. Summit In Sight 8. Osterc 9. Forbidden Trade 10. Pilot Discretion Follow Hambletonian Trail action from this blog on Twitter #Hambo19 and @FrankCotolo in cooperation with the Hambletonian Society.