Handicapping the Late Pick 4 on Pennsylvania Derby Day

Profile Picture: James Scully

September 19th, 2015

Parx Racing features a strong program today, highlighted by a pair of $1 million races in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and Cotillion Stakes (G1), and is offering a 1 million Points Hit It and Split It promotion, where players can claim a share of a million points for cashing a winning ticket on the Late Pick 4 (races 7-10).

Here are my thoughts on the four races and I’ll recommend four Pick 4 tickets on a $49 bankroll.

Race 7: Market Blaster (#6) came on at the end of last season and appears to be following the same formula this campaign, registering a field-best 110 BRIS Speed rating for a front-running victory on August 30. Speed rates a slight edge. Street Babe (#1) looks dangerous off a nice win at Saratoga. Freestyler (#2) is 2-for-2 over the track, and Encryption (#7) and Classic Giacnroll (#8) will be used as back-ups.

Race 8: Grand Bili (#7) was hurt by an inside post last time but performed gamely finishing fifth behind an impressive winner, can rebound today. Catalina Red (#5) exits a nice comeback win at Gulfstream (102 Speed rating), could have more to offer. Limousine Liberal (#3) figures to be overbet following King’s Bishop second, a huge effort in only his third lifetime start. Worried about a regression but must include as a saver along with Hebbronville (#6), who is 3-for-3 at Parx.

Race 9: Twelve fillies are entered and a solid pace appears inevitable with half the field capable of throwing down triple-digit Early Pace numbers. Peace and War (#7) enters on the upswing, posting runner-up finishes in her first two starts for new trainer Graham Motion, and late runner appears capable of a minor upset. I’m a Chatterbox (#8) has the class to challenge from just off the pace, and Tara’s Tango (#1) and Pangburn (#6) are improving types who will attempt to challenge in the latter stages.

Race 10: Scratch of Gimme Da Lute means Frosted (#3) will be a heavy favorite and gray colt is a legitimate threat to overpower competition if fully recovered from Travers effort three weeks ago. Island Town (#2) can also figure prominently off a 6 ¾-length romp in the August 29 Smarty Jones at Parx, registering a career-best 101 BRIS Speed rating while winning for the first time outside of Churchill Downs. Madefromlucky (#5) and Iron Fist (#4), first and fourth in West Virginia Derby, are back-ups.

Pick 4 tickets (races 7-10)

Ticket 1: 1,6 with 7 with 1,6,8 with 2,3,4,5 ($12)
Ticket 2: 1,6 with 3,5,6,7 with 7 with 2,3,4,5 ($16)
Ticket 3: 2,7,8 with 5,7 with 7,8 with 2,3 ($12)
Ticket 4: 6 with 3,5,6 with 1,6,8 with 2,3 ($9)

Island Town winning the Smarty Jones courtesy of Barbara Weidl/Equi-Photo