Handicapping Challenge: Saratoga Pick 4 for 7/23/2014

Molly Jo Rosen

July 23rd, 2014

What started as a simple text between friends describing Wednesday's late Pick 4 sequence at Saratoga as "impossible," quickly turned into the first-ever #TeamBetAmerica handicapping Battle Royale:

Andrew Champagne v. Molly Jo Rosen

They're only competing for bragging rights, but sometimes - especially among handicappers - that's the biggest prize of all!

So let's get to it...

$.50 minimum Late Pick 4 starts at 3:38 pm ET

Andrew's ticket ... 6,8,10,11,12 / 1,3,5,7,9 / 4,5,7 / 2,8,12  ... $112.50 total

He says:

So I've been challenged by our fearless editor to a Pick Four contest. Never one to turn down a challenge or a chance to look foolish by comparison to someone else, I've accepted, even though Wednesday's late Pick Four sequence at Saratoga is downright devilish. My ticket costs $112.50 for a 50-cent wager, which is more than I'd traditionally spend. However, for purposes of this challenge, I will act as though I'm spending Molly's money instead of my own.

Molly Jo's ticket ... 1,4,6,10 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,7 / 3,8,11,12 ... $128 total

Her logic:

Saratoga race 7 | Maiden (65) for 3&up F& going 1 mi. (T) 1-Treaty Oak: because I've loved this horse since before the trouble-filled debut & she's gonna get a win one day 4-Arch Tiger: yet to run a bad race for Sheppard (one of the most genius horsemen ever to hold a trainer's license) 6-Time for Harlan: what happens if she gets a clean trip? 7-All Star Kitten: maybe not the soundest Kitten's Joy filly in Chad Brown's barn, but she's training well 10-Beauty Surprise: moves to Clement off the freshening

yes: I'm leaving the favored 12-Late Night Artist out because - as much as I love Robby on a speedy turf filly - she may not get the lead thanks to that outside draw

Saratoga race 8 | Claiming (25) for 3&up going 7f 1-Go Appeal: popular claim gets class relief looking for his 3rd straight 4-Street Shark: gets back to dirt & is in off the win 5-Shankopotamus: Horse4Course doubles in class for Englehart off the claim 7-Bemata: always around at the wire & gets class relief

Saratoga race 9 | G2 Lake George for 3yo F going 1-1/16 mi. (T) 1-Daring Kathy: speed draws the rail looking for 4th straight & getting a major jock upgrade to JohnnyV 2-Daring Dancer: if we line-through the last, she's got Freak potential 4-Sweet Acclaim: Chad Brown + Javier Castellano with a filly who hasn't won since her debut, but is a total of 3 lengths from victory in her 3 US losses 7-A Little Bit Sassy: Matz came to play with a solid group of turf fillies & this 3yo is training great having yet to run a bad race

now is a good time to remind the world of my favorite running of the Lake George: Winter Memories in 2011 (especially the 1:43 mark when she hits the rocket boosters like "ok - enough - I got this one ladies - buh bye!"

Saratoga race 10 | N1X Allowance for 3&up NY-bred going 5.5f (T) 3-Saucon Valley: though it was a good effort, forgive her 2nd out for the first-time-turf & the rough trip 8-Hot Squeeze: training lights out on the stake drop 11-Mighty Reward: should be rolling late & in off near-miss 12-White Crane: not a huge fan of speed drawn outside, but she gets a massive upgrade from bug weight to Rosario