Hanson: Two deep in QEII and spreading elsewhere in Keeneland Late Pick 4

Profile Picture: Vance Hanson

October 15th, 2016

Saturday's late Pick 4 at Keeneland, with the exception of the third leg, the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), appears highly contentious on paper. I'll go just two deep in the QEII with Catch a Glimpse (#1, 2-1) and Time and Motion (#7, 5-2), who are the class of that $500,000 fixture. Here's how I'll be spreading in the other legs:

Race 7 - Allied Air Raid (#7, 4-1) and Coalport (#8, 6-1), who owns a 3-2-1-0 mark on the Keeneland turf, are solid threats off their one-two finish last out in the $75,000 Unbridled at Louisiana Downs. Dubai Sky (#12, 4-1) exits a tough renewal of the Bernard Baruch H. (G2) where he was bumped at the break and was unable to show his tactical early foot. The Grade 3 veteran is undefeated with Johnny V. in the saddle. I'll also toss in Nun the Less (#4, 12-1), a course-and-distance winner who Geroux guided to stakes win at Canterbury last season.

Race 8 - Morning-line favorite War Ride (#3, 3-1) possesses more of a tactical advantage than a back class one. He figures to be on the lead or just off it, and will take some catching. Conquest Big E (#4, 7-2) drops in class and shortens up for Mark Casse. He's been working lights out in recent weeks, but might be overbet. Yockey's Warrior (#9, 10-1) is very interesting. He ran huge second off the layoff at Oaklawn back in January, and figures to make a stronger presence second time back following a tune-up on the Kentucky Downs turf.

Race 10 - Bellows (#5, 5-1) was off slow, but rallied well to finish only a neck behind in his debut at Parx for Graham Motion. He adds Lasix and seemingly fits despite the class hike. First-time starters Takeoff (#6, 9-2), Keep Talking (#8, 4-1) and Hurricane Force (#11, 6-1) have all shown flash in their morning trials. Keep Talking, in particular, has an impressive pedigree: she's a Brereton Jones homebred by Ghostzapper out of Honey Talk, who won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup four years ago.

Here's the 50-cent ticket: 4,7,8,12 with 3,4,9 with 1,7 with 5,6,8,11 = $48

Good luck!

(Chelsea Durand/Adam Coglianese Photography)