Harness racing profit picks for April 1 at Cal Expo
Each week, Frank Cotolo employs proven money-management tactics to build exotic-wagering tickets that carefully focus on plump profits.
Your exotic betting habits may be costing you too much — even when you win — because you are not targeting your choices correctly. When building an exotic ticket, especially “Pick” multi-race tickets, a betting strategy and ruthless decisions can make or break your bankroll.
The object is not to hit every single Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 5 ticket, because that is an unattainable goal. It wastes precious bankroll ammunition and can result in losses. The aim is to hit one now and then to win a big chunk.
Let’s look at a Pick 3 on Cal Expo’s April 1 program. It includes the second, third, and fourth races. Do not worry about the base price of the Pick 3, because we are going to decide upon the size of the bet after we find the horses involved.
The exceptional favorite in this state-bred affair is #3 Prom Queen, and the co-favorite is #5 Debit Or Credit. The outsider with a good chance for an upset, with a good trip, is #2 Winihavetime.
Change your mindset about hitting this Pick 3 — from “I must hit it” to “I want to be a big winner.” In order to cash a big Pick 3, you have to single the possible upset horse, Winihavetime. Your only possible backup is a win bet on Winihavetime, which you should have chosen over the obvious two morning-line favorites as a single-race wager.
Another longshot looms. This is #1 Windsun Galaxie, who is back after a good start last time out. In this Pick 3 leg, though, you can add a lower-priced horse, because there are three in the field that will split the win pool. Our addition is #6 Mandeville, who may go off the highest of the three.
A small field of four state-breds is led by a colt who has not lost yet. #4 Its Pointless is four-for-four against three others, who have all been beaten by him. The colt who could have the best chance to beat Its Pointless is #1 Good To Be Glad. The public may not think so. It may go with #3 White Knuckle Road, who was second the last time he met Its Pointless.
It’s decision time. Think price. You can use the utter favorite, Its Pointless, because if you are alive with the two upsets, you are guaranteed a decent price. But you could also add Good To Be Glad as an upset option, which would give you an even better payout, should the big favorite falter.