Harness Weekly Update: 43% in the money
The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features, stakes, and the H2W (horses-to-watch list). H2W horses through the following Monday appear in the following week’s Update.
Thursday, Oct. 27
This week’s pair of Mohawk Miles failed to fire. Merchantman (46-1) had some early moving but faded to eighth; an 18-1 shot won. Game Set Match also put in some early speed but tired while beaten by a 7-1 shot.
Friday, Oct. 28
The quartet of freshman Breeders Crown (BC) finals were dominated by public choices in three of four contests. Our best finishes included some popular picks. Charleston ($3.30, $2.30) finished second to tag a $7.00 exacta with the favorite, while Mcseaside (10-1) was lost in traffic to finish ninth. Walner Payton ($3.50, $2.30) finished second in a $7.20 exacta, while Silly Me Hanover (3-1) was sixth of 10.
A 7-2 shot beat Kierkegaard K (61-1) who trotted better than those odds to finish fifth, as 2-1 Oh Well jumped at the start to finish sixth, and Dire Straits (33-1) was great at the start but held on for fourth. In the last of the four we were beaten by 50-1 Ammo, one we backed in an elim but passed over in this final, while we finished third with Stockade Seelster ($4.30) and fifth with Ervin Hanover (76-1).
Saturday, Oct. 29
Here’s our scoring of contenders in order of the division’s race number from the eight BC finals at Woodbine/Mohawk:
Mare trot: Bella Bellini ($3.80, $2.70, $2.40)
Mare pace: Mikala (4-1), sixth
3yo filly trot: Jiggy Jog S ($6.80, $4.50, $2.30); Joviality S ($2.10), third
3yo filly pace: Niki Hill ($2.60, $2.30); Max Contract (8-1), fifth
3yo colt trot: Fast As The Wind (11-1) seventh
3yo colt pace: Captain Cowboy (121-1) sixth
Open trot: Jujubee (3-1) fourth; Back Of The Neck (5-2) ninth
Our hopeful scenario in the Open pace did not develop. Bulldog Hanover was not challenged, so none of the possibilities for a steal of an upset developed; they were all also-paced entries.
H2W LIST RESULTS
The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Exactas listed include a H2W horse finishing second to a race-favorite or if the first two finishers are H2W horses (an asterisk appears when both horses form a cold exotic combo; most base prices are $2). The note “OK” determines that prices are correct (even when a show price exceeds a place price or all prices are the same).
Please note that some results reflect horses racing after the blog posts (they appear the following week).
This week, there were 37 H2W horses (27% win-hit rate and a 43% ATB [across-the-board] rate). Horses with asterisks before their names were tweets @FrankCotolo. Follow for late choices.
Big Al M, $13.80, $7.20, $3.60, Plainridge
Pure Cotton, $13.80, $7.10, $3.60, Yonkers
Imgonnacatchya, $9.00, $4.20, $2.80, Northville
Big Money Mike, $8.10, $4.30, $3.10, Monticello
Pretty Ricki, $6.00, $4.20, $2.60, Meadows
Red Dirt Boomer, $4.00, $3.00, $2.10, Freehold
Compassrose De Vie, $3.80, $2.40, $2.40, OK, Rosecroft
Wild Nite Tina, $3.60, $3.00, $2.60, Northville
Violets Rainbow, $3.30, $2.40, $2.10, Yonkers
Imnottellinyaagain, $3.20, $2.60, $2.20, Northville
Lightfootedlegend, $7.00, $3.30 (Exacta $13.20), Vernon
Winning Hill, $2.40, $2.10 (Exacta, $4.60), Northfield
Hes Gonna Getya, $7.50, Yonkers
Vel Bitter Chip, $3.60, Saratoga
Ohmyheart, $3.00, Northville
Differentforgirls, $2.40, Dayton
NEWS & NOTES
Dover Downs’ 53rd harness meet returns for the 2022-23 racing season Oct. 31 and runs through Mar. 30. The Delaware track conducts an 83-day meet, racing Monday through Thursday with a 4:30 p.m. (ET) post time. Racing is dark Dec. 20 through Dec. 26 and returns on Dec. 27. The Matron Stakes late-season miles begin with freshman events on Nov. 3 and sophs compete on Nov. 10. The Progress Pace elims are scheduled for Nov. 17 and the final is on Nov. 23.
Expect any horse in BC final field to show up on the H2W if they did not end their season with the effort. We recommend any to be automatic bet-backs. Considering all of them should be dropping way down in class if they return to race, their public offerings may still be considered overlays, as we measure them by the companies they kept in the exceptional collection of BC entries.
Also on the track-news dateline is Nov. 18, when the sole surviving California harness racing meet continues. Cal Expo in Sacramento begins a 46-night meeting that Friday. Racing is conducted on a Friday-and-Sunday night schedule. Expect some of the left coast’s veteran horsemen, many from Running Aces and others having set up tack at Midwest meets, to drive and train on the two-turn mile.
Indulge in our column Alternative Actions at Harness Racing Update.