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Homeracing

Harness Weekly Update: $27 winner tops profitable plays

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

November 20th, 2022

The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features, stakes, and the H2W (horses-to-watch list). H2W horses through the following Monday appear in the following week’s Update.

Thursday, Nov. 17

This week’s expanded Mohawk Miles listed five horses. In a quintet that rewarded the crowd with four of five favorites, we wound up with one, Assassins Creed ($4.10, $2.80, $2.70). Three others played roles in exotics: Chesapeake Sunrise ($8.10) finished third, while Bumpy Jack (3-1) and Commemorative (31-1) both finished fourth. Play N Bad (7-1) came in seventh.

Friday, Nov. 18

In Hoosier’s Star Destroyer quartet, we hit the board in three of four races. Twice we were second, with Patsville ($3.60, $3.20) and Caviar Gold ($4.00, $3.00; Exacta $11.80). And Sure Thing Herman ($2.10) finished third ahead of Barry’s Berries (41-1), while favorite Gabbys C Note finished fourth.

Saturday, Nov. 19

Preps for next week’s Final Four featured elims, with only the frosh-colt pacers presenting two. Confederate, our contender in one of them, scratched. In the other we were fifth with Muskateer Hanover (27-1). In the frosh-colt trot, we were second with Kimmeridgian ($5.80, $3.20), completing a $16.00 exacta. In the sole frosh-filly pace elim, we were third with Strong Poison ($3.00).

H2W LIST RESULTS

The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Exactas listed include a H2W horse finishing second to a race-favorite or if the first two finishers are H2W horses (an asterisk appears when both horses form a cold exotic combo; most base prices are $2). The note “OK” determines that prices are correct (even when a show price exceeds a place price or all prices are the same).

Please note that some results reflect horses racing after the blog posts (they appear the following week).

This week, there were 41 H2W horses (a 22% win-hit rate and a 34% ATB [across-the-board] rate). Horses with asterisks before their names were tweets @FrankCotolo. Follow for late choices.

Winners

Taragon, $27.20, $10.20, $6.00, Rosecroft
Enchanted Mission, $11.20, $4.00, $2.40, Northville
Midnight Zen, $10.00, $4.20, $2.80, Freehold
Farmers Tan, $9.70, $5.80, $3.40, Yonkers
Red River Sal, $6.90, $2.30, $2.10, Monticello
Ideal One A, $3.80, $2.60, $2.40, Cal-Expo
Casa Miasa, $3.40, $2.40, $2.10, Cal-Expo
Take A Gamble, $3.10, $2.20, $2.10, Yonkers
Chase The Gold, $2.80, $2.20, $2.10, Cal-Expo

Second

Elegant Blue, $20.40, n/s, Monticello

Thirds

Hilarious Lou, $5.00, Rosecroft
Male Man, $3.60, Meadows
Berroshighlight N, $2.90, Yonkers
Big Bad Mike, $2.80, Dayton

NEWS & NOTES

Sometimes, TwinSpires harness bettors wonder why some stakes are not covered in our features section. An example is last week’s Progress Pace elims at Dover. They are perfect examples, falling into a category we call poor betting events. These stakes or overnights present favorites bound to dominate win pools. Such situations greatly favor public opinion and are best passed. The Progress elims confirmed the percentages.

As far as betting features are concerned, soon the TwinSpires Harness Preview will spotlight overnights as top betting affairs. With the stakes season concluding and the birthdays of all standardbreds concurrent with New Year’s Day, all of our features will be plucked from overnights and sometimes from local series. Every highlighted feature race follows our policy of measuring the best of betting opportunities, always in the bettor’s interest.

West Coast racing reporter Mark Ratsky tells us several new stables are in the Cal-Expo community this meet. As well, the mile oval expects a few new drivers to compete at this stand. New to California are horsemen from the Midwest, including Alesia Kehl and Ryan Verhage. Canadians Kelly Crump, Doug Stout, Trevor Williams, and Travis Ellis each bring stables to the Sacramento oval for the first time, representing the province of Alberta. There are 46 racing nights with a Friday and Sunday schedule (special programs include Dec. 26 and Feb. 11).

Racing at The Meadowlands will be conducted on a Friday-Saturday basis through the end of the year with a first-race post time of 6:20 p.m. (ET). There are several exceptions on the schedule: no racing on Dec. 23 and 24, and one Thursday night card on Dec. 1.

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in our column Alternative Actions at Harness Racing Update.

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