ADVERTISEMENT

Homeracing

Here’s how to win $20 betting Churchill Downs and earn 20x points on TwinSpires.com

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

September 11th, 2015

The good folks who sign my paycheques are putting up 20x points today (opening) day at Churchill Downs if you win $20 while playing the races at The World’s Most Legendary Racetrack. I’m ineligible for the 20x points but will be just as happy with the $20, so here’s my approach to today’s 10-race card.

First, a few thoughts on the third annual September meeting, which runs 11 dates through September 27. In dirt sprints at last year’s September meeting, the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating as well as the top-ranked PRIME POWER horse both sported positive flat bet ROIs on straight win wagers, and even when expanding that to all races during the meeting, the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating was still at -2.5% with PRIME POWER at -4% ROI—both fantastic figures over a 119-race sample.

So, we’ll definitely be keeping that in mind when navigating the days’ races, and there will be plenty of opportunities with a Lucky 7 jackpot Pick 7, Pick 6, Pick 5, three Pick 4s, and rolling Pick 3s and doubles available daily.

As for the opening day card, nothing too clever on our strongest opinions of who the most likely winners are, as we look to the rail both in race 4 (Nejma) and in race 9 (House of Sole). The former is a key race because it starts the mid Pick 4 while ending the early. It’s also the first leg of the Lucky 7 and is a part of three Pick 3s and a pair of doubles.

Nejma certainly is the most likely winner, but if speed looks especially good through the first three races then #s 3, 4, 7 can be used on other tickets because one of them might forget to stop at a decent price. #5 Miss Delstar is the closer to fear most if Nejma doesn’t fire.

I’m more confident in House of Sole in the ninth race, and she will be a prominent single in order to allow me to use more horses in an inscrutable maiden claiming nightcap. Chortle is the obvious upset threat as a lone “E” in the field, but House of Sole should stay close with the ideal rail draw.

Good luck betting on TwinSpires.com!

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Loading...