Holland's North America Racing Picks for July 4
Some well-bred maiden fillies include #10 Publication (3-1), a daughter of Tapit out of Filimbi, who won the Goldikova (G2). Filly finished well when third in her debut at Gulfstream in early April and trainer Chad Brown wins with 29% of his second-time starters. Another here that may provide better value is #2 L’Indiscret (15-1), who was not a threat when seventh in her debut at Gulfstream in late March. Daughter of War Front is out of Orchid (G3) winner Beauty Parlor. Recent works include a sharp 4-furlong move in :47 3/5 for trainer Tagg, who wins with 14% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days. Filly should show more here under Franco, who has won with one of his last three rides for the barn.
Trainer Proctor wins with 16% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days and saddles #8 Good On Paper (10-1), who finished well when third in her debut sprinting at Fair Grounds in March. Daughter of War Front is out of Feathered, who won the Edgewood (G3), and has been working well for Proctor, who won with one of his first four runners this meet. Bay can be along from off the pace with Coa riding.
#9 Correctness (6-1) weakened to finish sixth after tracking the early leaders in the Florida Oaks (G3) in her latest at Tampa in March. Trainer Delacour wins with 27% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days and $1 million yearling purchase by Medaglia d’Oro is out of a half-sister to the dam of Elate, who won the Alabama (G1). Dark bay can be in good position throughout with Centeno retaining the mount.
A competitive field for the Kent (G3) includes #4 Bye Bye Melvin (6-1), who returns to turf after an unsuccessful try in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Son of excellent grass sire Uncle Mo is a full brother to recent New York (G2) winner Mean Mary and trainer Motion wins with 20% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days. Dark bay won two of four previous starts on grass and can be near the front early with Lynch riding.
#9 Gravitas (6-1) chased the leader from the start when second at this distance at Tampa in late May in his second outing. Son of Blame is trained by Jonathon Thomas, who has won with 25% of his runners this year and who wins with 27% of his starters on grass. Gelding can be on or near the early lead with Vargas in the irons.
Trainer De Paulo has won with 13% of his runners at this meet and saddles #2 Golden Wave (10-1), who was impressive when breaking his maiden over the track and distance in his latest last month in his first start on an all-weather surface and third outing overall. Facing winners for the first time is never easy but De Paulo wins with a solid 16% of his runners in this situation. Son of Atreides can be in the early mix with Kimura up.
#1 Kendalin (8-1) makes her debut for trainer Cowans, who won with five of his first 12 runners at this meet. Rail post is not ideal for a newcomer, but Cowans wins with 18% of his first-time starters and filly is by Distorted Humor, whose offspring win 15% of their first outings. Filly cost $130K as a yearling and may be ready for a good first outing under Machado, who has won with four of his last 10 rides for this barn.
Newcomer #4 Say It Nicely (8-1) has a good win-early pedigree being by 10% debut sire Discreet Cat and out of a mare by Lord Carson, whose offspring win 13% of their first outings. Dark bay is a half-brother to four winners and has been working well for trainer Von Hemel, who wins with 25% of his first-timers. Gelding can win at first asking with Gonzalez aboard.