Holland's North American free picks for Dec. 4
Tim Holland makes his expert picks for North American horse racing at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park.
#11 Rich’s Rags (5-1) likely needed his latest when fading to finish sixth after vying for the early lead at this distance across town being his first start in just over 14 months. Son of Union Rags is a half-brother to four winners, and trainer De la Cerda wins with 12% of his runners second off a layoff. Gelding figures to be sent early with Saez in the saddle.
Danny Gargan wins with 25% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and saddles #8 Myamanoi (9-2), who weakened to finish unplaced over one mile at Saratoga in his latest in early September. Gargan wins with 19% of his runners on turf, and son of Temple City finished a close fourth in the Dania Beach in one previous start on this course. Dark bay can be along late with Saez taking the mount.
Maidens on turf include #6 War Falcon (4-1), who made some progress when fifth in her debut over 5 furlongs at Indiana last month. Trainer Cox wins with 26% of his second-time starters, and daughter of promising young sire Air Force Blue is out of a Tapit mare who has produced one winner. Bay can be along late under Geroux, who has won with 25% of his rides for the barn in the past two months.
Plenty of early speed may help the chances of #5 Cambria (8-1), who was not a threat when unplaced on grass as the favorite at Keeneland in her latest in July in her first start since last November. Daughter of Speightstown won both of her two previous starts on an all-weather track, and trainer Ward wins with 21% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days. Filly has been working forwardly and can be along late under Corrales, who has won with 30% of his rides for Ward in the past 60 days.