Holland's North American free racing picks for Nov. 19
Tim Holland offers his picks for this day in racing at Churchill Downs, Aqueduct, and Gulfstream Park West.
Trainer Thomas wins with 27% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and saddles #4 So Dialed In (6-1), who weakened to finish fourth after leading early over one mile at Monmouth in his second outing. Son of Dialed In is out of a mare by Tapit and posted a sharp 5-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 six days ago for Thomas, who has won with 19% of his starters this year. Gelding can be in good early position with Geroux taking the mount.
Maidens on turf include #6 Divided Sky (5-2), who likely needed her latest when fading to finish fifth over one mile at Monmouth last month in her first start in nearly 11 months. Daughter of Society Rock is a half-sister to Lady Prancelot, who won the American Oaks (G1), and makes her second start for trainer Castellano, who has won with 10% of his runners this year. Filly can be forwardly placed from the start under Carmouche.
Blinkers are added to #2 High Velocity (6-1), who comes off a weakening fifth-place finish over 6 1/2 furlongs at Belmont last month in his second start after a lengthy absence. 3-year-old won the Bob Hope (G3) as a juvenile before joining trainer Breen, who wins with 20% of his runners third time off a layoff. Son of Quality Road figures to be sent early with Irad Ortiz remaining aboard.
Plenty of early pace may help the chances of #6 Last Opportunity (10-1), who makes his first start for trainer Pletcher off an unplaced effort over 1 1/16 miles at Belmont early last month. Colt has faced good company in his five starts in this country and Pletcher wins with 25% of his runners first time for his barn. Son of decent European turf sprint sire Dandy Man can be along late with Irad Ortiz riding.
Gulfstream Park West
#7 Ketchikan (4-1) was not a threat when unplaced at this distance on the main track at Keeneland last month but finished well in his debut on grass at Ellis in August two back. Trainer Walsh wins with 14% of his runners on grass and daughter of Mineshaft is out of a stakes placed mare by Tale of the Cat. Filly can be along from off the pace with Camacho in the saddle.