Holland's North American free racing picks for Oct. 4
Qualifiers for the Breeders' Cup continue today as Tim Holland offers his free expert picks for Keeneland, Belmont Park, and Monmouth Park.
Maidens over 6 furlongs include #5 Eucharist (5-1), a newcomer with a good win-early pedigree being by Flatter and out of a mare by Street Boss. Trainer Brisset wins with a slightly low 9% of his first-time starters but gelding has posted an impressive worktab here at Keeneland. Bay appears ready for a good first outing with Saez taking the mount.
Plenty of early speed in the Indian Summer S. may set up well for #1 Cowan (8-1), who made late progress when third at Kentucky Downs last month in his third start and first on grass. Son of excellent turf sprint sire Kantharos is out of Tempers Flair, who finished second in the Hatoof S., and trainer Asmussen wins with 25% of his runners second time on grass. Chestnut can close into a fast pace with Santana riding.
Trainer Walsh wins with 11% of his second-time starters and saddles #4 Business Model (10-1), who was well bet as the favorite but flattened out to finish unplaced in his debut at Ellis over 6 1/2 furlongs in August. Dark bay should be suited to this longer distance being by Candy Ride and out of a Bernardini mare who won the Groupie Doll (G3). Improvement can be expected from the 2-year-old with Lanerie remaining aboard.
Trainer Motion wins with 13% of his runners in graded stakes and saddles #7 Batyah (8-1), who rallied from off the pace to win her debut over one mile here last month. Daughter of Pioneerof the Nile is a half-sister to Stellar Agent, who finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), and Motion has won with two of his eight starters this meet. Dark bay can be running late with Marquez riding.
#7 Fog of War (10-1) lost chances when rank early when unplaced in his latest over one mile at Saratoga in early August in his first outing in nearly a year. Son of War Front won his debut in his one previous start sprinting on grass and trainer Brown wins with 27% of his runners on turf. 4-year-old may settle better early at this shorter distance with Franco in the irons.
Maidens on grass include #4 Contained (6-1), who finished fifth in an even effort in her debut over 6 furlongs at Belmont behind subsequent Catch a Glimpse winner Alda. Filly should be better suited to this longer distance being by Flintshire and is out of a half-sister to In Lingerie, who won the Spinster (G1). Trainer Duarte wins with a high 35% of his second-time starters, and bay can be forwardly placed from the start with Batista up.