Holland's North American free racing picks for Sept. 20
Tim Holland provides his free expert picks for Churchill Downs, Belmont Park, and Woodbine.
Blinkers are added to #5 No Obligation (4-1), who made late progress after a slow start when fourth in his debut over 5 1/2 furlongs at Laurel last month. Trainer Motion wins with 18% of his second-time starters and son of Street Boss is a half-brother to one winner. Colt can be closer to the early pace this time with Graham riding.
George Weaver wins with 19% of his first-time starters and saddles #6 Texas Basin (10-1), a debuting son of good win-early sire Successful Appeal. Colt cost $250K as a yearling and has been working well for Weaver, who has won with 21% of his runners this year. Bay is likely ready for a good first outing with Cancel in the irons.
Some well-bred maiden fillies on grass include #4 All American Dream (6-1), who debuts for Graham Motion, who wins with 14% of his runners on grass. Daughter of American Pharoah is out of a half-sister to Dream Supreme, who won the Test (G1), and is a half-sister to four winners. #6 Fly Fight Win (15-1) is by War Front and out of a mare by Pulpit and has not been seen since fading to finish unplaced in her debut over one mile at Gulfstream in February. Lasix is added by trainer Toner, who wins with 12% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days.
A competitive field for the Summer (G1) includes #7 Dolder Grand (8-1), who flattened out when third after making progress from off the pace in his debut over 7 furlongs here last month. Son of Candy Ride is out of a full sister to Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Tapizar, and trainer Casse wins with 16% of his second-time starters. $800K purchase earlier this year worked 5 furlongs in :59 on this course since his first outing and can be along from off the pace with Husbands remaining aboard.
#2 Seasons (10-1) was heavily bet when narrowly winning her debut despite being green at Saratoga last month. Trainer Toner wins with 11% of his runners in graded stakes and daughter of Tapit is out of Winter Memories, who won the Diana (G1). Chestnut meets a tough group in the Natalma (G1), but may prove good enough with Contreras taking the mount.