Holland's North American Racing Picks for May 9
by Tim Holland
Editor’s Note: As of May 6, 2020 Tim Holland has delivered with 329 races, 76 winners (23%) and a profit of 14% on all picks, (with off-the-turf races not counting) and when looking at runners with odds of 5-1 or higher, increases to a profit of 33%. Tuesday's picks did particularly well.
Trainer Pilotti wins with 11% of his maiden claimers and saddles #3 Poseidons Princess (6-1), a debuting daughter of Poseidon’s Warrior who is out of a mare by 14% first-out sire Put It Back. Pilotti wins with just 6% of his first-time starters but dark bay posted a sharp 4-furlong work in :48 1/5 here nine days ago. Filly can be ready to win at first asking at this low level under Saez, who has won with two of his last four rides for the barn.
Maidens on turf include #5 Make a Move (20-1), who showed little when unplaced over 5 furlongs in his debut last month. Son of 11% grass sire Violence is a half-brother to two winners on grass and has worked well since his first outing for trainer Hills, who won with four of his last 19 runners going a route for the first time. $100K purchase can show improvement and may be worth a look at long odds with Prado riding.
#3 Fast Scene (3-1) has not been seen since giving way badly to finish unplaced in a stakes at Keeneland in October. Daughter of good young sire Fast Anna led from the start to win at this distance at Woodbine two back and has been working well at Tampa for trainer Hamm, who wins with 15% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days. Dark bay figures to be the one to catch with Davis in the saddle.
Trainer Toner wins with 14% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days and saddles #7 Hawkish (10-1), who has not been seen since showing little over 6 furlongs at Belmont in October. Lightly-raced 5-year-old finished a close second in the Appleton (G3) here last year coming off a longer layoff and posted a sharp 5-furlong work in :59 3/5 a week ago for Toner, who wins with 19% of his runners in non-graded stakes. Bay meets a tough field, but appears ready for a good effort with Jaramillo taking the mount.
Ian Wilkes saddles two here that appear worthy of consideration. #1 Counter Offer (8-1) may have needed his latest when flattening out to finish fourth here in early March being his first outing since last May. Son of Tapizar has won one of seven starts on grass and has been working well for Wilkes, who wins with 13% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Gray can be running late along with #2 Stealth (15-1), who tries grass for the first time off a well-beaten fifth place finish over 7 furlongs in late March in his second outing after a lengthy absence. Barn wins with 18% of runners third off a layoff and gelding may take to the surface being by 15% turf sire Blame.
#5 R Mercedes Boy (4-1) may have just needed his latest when weakening late to finish second over the track and distance last month being his first start since December. Son of Overdriven has a record of 6-1-2-1 on this oval and trainer Baxter wins with 23% of her runners second off a layoff. Gelding figures to get a good trip stalking a solid pace with Jaramillo retaining the mount.
Tampa Bay Downs
Another that likely needed his latest is #7 Red Hot Looks (6-1), who gave way badly when unplaced in a route on turf facing better in his latest last month in his first start since last August. Chestnut makes his second outing for trainer Caruso, who wins with 27% of his runners second off a layoff and who has won with 15% of his starters at this meet. Son of speedy sire Bring the Heat is likely the one to catch with Martinez in the irons.
#7 Mozano (9-2) weakened to finish third after vying for the early lead on the main track here last month. Dark bay failed to hit the board in one previous start on turf but should be suited to the surface being by Verrazano and out of a mare by Lemon Drop Kid. Trainer Sweezey has won with 15% of his starters this meet and gelding can be in good position throughout under Wales, who has won with 15% of his rides for the barn in the past 60 days.
Trainer Stidham is having an excellent meet, winning with 28% of his runners and saddles #5 Americandy (6-1), who gets blinkers removed off a weakening fourth-place finish here in mid-March. Gelding should be suited to this longer distance and has won two of five starts on grass for Stidham, who wins with 20% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. 4-year-old has tactical speed and can be in good position throughout with Morales in the irons.
Maidens on grass in the finale include #3 Etelka (6-1), who faded to finish unplaced on the main track in her latest last month in her first start since her debut in December. Filly is likely best on turf being by Bodemeister and out of a Scat Daddy mare and trainer Scott wins with 22% of her runners second off a layoff. 3-year-old can be in good early position with Mena in the saddle.