Holland's North American Racing Picks for Oct. 7
Handicapper Tim Holland has a couple of value plays for Keeneland, as well as selections for Delaware Park and Presque Isle Downs on Wednesday.
Trainer Thomas wins with 25% of his runners on grass and saddles #9 So High (12-1), who comes off a second-place finish at this distance on a sloppy main track at Monmouth Park in late-August. Son of good European sire Nathaniel is out of Fugitive Angel, who won the Valley View (G3), and chestnut has a win from three starts for Thomas, who has won with 19% of his runners this year. Gelding can be in good position throughout with Leparoux riding.
A competitive field for the Jessamine (G2) includes #8 Navratilova (10-1), who closed after a slow start to win her debut over 5 1/2 furlongs at Ellis in August. Trainer Arnold wins with 14% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and daughter of Medgalia d’Oro is out of Jenny Wiley (G1) winner Centre Court. Bay has been working well and can be along late with Leparoux retaining the mount.
#11 Spin Control (10-1) lost chances with a slow start from an inside post when fourth in her latest at Delaware last month in her first start since June. Filly has not hit the board in four starts on grass, but should be suited to the surface being by Hard Spun and out of a mare by Rahy. Trainer Duarte wins with 23% of his runners second off a layoff, and chestnut can be running from just off the pace under Alvarado, who has won with two of his last 11 rides for the barn.
Brittany Russell has been winning with 30% of her first-time starters and sends out #4 Not On My Watch (6-1), a debuting daughter of freshman sire Not This Time, whose offspring have won 28% of their first outings. Dark bay is out of a half-sister to Tiz Miz Sue, who won the Ogden Phipps (G1), and she's been working well for Russell, who is 24% with her runners this year. 2-year-old appears ready for a good first outing with Cedeno taking the mount.
#2 Kobla Mas (5-1) closed to finish a well-beaten third after a slow start in his debut over the track and distance last month. Son of More Than Ready is a half-brother to Bitumen, who won the Sanford (G3), and trainer Stidham wins with 21% of his second-time starters. Dark bay can be tough with a better start and Morales remains aboard.