Holland's North American Racing Plays for Nov. 1

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November 1st, 2020

A couple of plays from Churchill Downs are spotlighted, and handicapper Tim Holland has picks for Belmont Park, Laurel Park, and Woodbine on Sunday.

Churchill Downs

Race 6

Trainer Pessin won with two of his last nine runners making their first start on turf and saddles #1 Capt. Maestri (6-1), who closed while running on the wrong lead in his debut in early-September. Son of Tapit is out of a daughter of Bint Pasha, who won the Prix Vermeille (G1), and Pessin wins with 10% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Gelding can be running late with Lanerie retaining the mount.

Race 8

#3 Violent City (5-1) has not been seen since finishing second over 7 furlongs at Gulfstream in February in his second start following an impressive debut more than a month earlier. Son of Violence has been working well for trainer Wilkes, who wins with 16% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days. Dark bay can be on or near the lead from the start with Leparoux in the saddle.

Belmont Park

Race 8

A competitive field for the Chelsey Flower S. includes #2 Oyster Box (8-1), who rallied from just off the pace to win her debut over 6 furlongs early last month. Daughter of Tapit is out of Starformer, who won the New York (G2) and is the dam of Tourist Mile winner Flavius. Trainer Motion wins with 17% of his runners going a route for the first time and filly can be forwardly placed early with Velazquez riding.

Laurel Park

Race 2

Maidens going 6 furlongs include #6 Moonsafe (5-1), a debuting daughter of young sire Mosler, whose few offspring to race have won 12% of their first outings. Filly is out of a half-sister to Hookedonthefeelin, who won the La Brea (G1), and has been working forwardly for trainer Trombetta, who wins with 15% of his first-time starters. Bay appears ready for a good showing under Pimentel, who has won with 19% of his rides for the barn in the past two months.


Race 7

#4 Street Toll (10-1) finished fifth in an even effort in his debut over 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track last month. A a full-sister to Canadian champion 3-year-old Holy Helena, chestnut should appreciate the surface change and longer trip being by Street Boss and out of a mare by Ghostzapper. Trainer Doyle wins with 30% of his runners going a route for the first time and colt can be in good position throughout with Wilson in the saddle.