Holland's North American Racing Plays for Nov. 14

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November 14th, 2020

Several plays for Saturday from handicapper Tim Holland as Tim focuses on Churchill Downs, Aqueduct, Woodbine, and Del Mar.

Churchill Downs

Race 7

#9 Power End (8-1) has shown improvement since being switched to turf, over which surface he has a record of 5-2-2-1, after four losses on dirt. Son of good turf sprint sire Street Boss is out of a daughter of Favourable Times, who won the Nassau (G1) and finished fast when second at this distance at Keeneland in his latest last month. Chestnut should find a solid pace to close into with Santana retaining the mount.

Race 10

A solid field for the Mrs. Revere (G2) includes #2 Positive Danger (15-1), who comes off a gate-to-wire score at this distance at Indiana last month. Daughter of Uncle Mo is a half-sister to Surgical Strike, who won the Arlington Classic (G2), and the filly has won two of her three starts on grass for trainer Granitz, who has won with 17% of his runners this year. Bay will likely be in front early and could prove tough to catch if not pressured with Hernandez riding.

Race 11

Some well-bred maidens going a mile include #9 Empress Catherine (6-1), who was not a factor when unplaced in her debut as the favorite at Keeneland over 6 furlongs last month. Trainer Asmussen wins with 21% of his second-time starters. Filly should improve with the extra distance being by Nyquist and from the close family of Super Derby (G1) winner and leading sire, Arch. #3 D’oro Forever (12-1) is a debuting daughter of Medaglia d’Oro and out of a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) winner, Forever Unbridled. Trainer Stewart wins with a slightly low 8% of his first-time starters, but did win with one of his last nine runners debuting at a distance of one mile or longer.


Race 9

#9 Valid Point (6-1) had excuses for most of his losses since winning the Secretariat (G1) last year, most recently when tried unsuccessfully on dirt a Monmouth in September. Son of Scat Daddy has been working well for trainer Brown, who wins with 27% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. 4-year-old can be along from off the pace under Jose Ortiz, who has won with 32% of his rides for the barn in the past 60 days.


Race 5

Mike Stidham wins with 20% of his second-time starters and saddles #5 Right Round (8-1), who lost chances with a slow start and wide trip in her debut over one mile on grass at Monmouth last month. Daughter of More Than Ready is out of a full-sister to Questing, who won the Alabama (G1), and Stidham has won with two of his six runners at this meet. Chestnut can show more here with Contreras in the saddle.

Del Mar

Race 1

Maidens sprinting on grass include #1 Shizaam (15-1), who makes her first start for trainer Sadler off a fourth-place finish of 18 runners at the Curragh in August, from which race the first three finishers both won next time out. Winner of that event had finished third in the Moyglare (G1) earlier in her career, and filly is a half-sister to Queen Elizabeth II (G1) third-place finisher Safe Voyage. 3-year-old is likely best with more distance, but should find a fast pace to close into with Pereira up.