Horse racing trends: Arlington Park track update

Profile Picture: Rowan Ward

August 10th, 2021

The biggest week of the Arlington Park summer is here!

Saturday's card features eight stakes races, including three Grade 1 races on the turf — the Mister D, the Beverly D., and the Bruce D.

Let's check the trends to watch going into Million Week!


Jareth Loveberry, first-call rider for perennial leading trainer Larry Rivelli, has dominated the riding standings. His 71 wins (from 246 starts, 29%) put him 38 clear of second-place rider Chris Emigh.

Five jockeys have between 28 and 33 wins — Emigh (33 wins, 189 starts, 17%), Rocco Bowen (31 wins, 179 starts, 17%), Declan Carroll (29 wins, 187 starts, 16%), E. T. Baird (28 wins, 126 starts, 22%), and Constantino Roman (28 wins, 197 starts, 14%).

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Jockey Jareth Loveberry. (Photo by Coady Photography/Oaklawn Park)

Though Loveberry leads all categories (turf and dirt, sprint and all-weather) in wins, two riders are very close in turf sprints. Loveberry has eight turf sprint wins (33 starts, 24%, -7% ROI), but Baird (seven wins, 24 starts, 29%, +15% ROI) and Emigh (six wins, 15 starts, 40%, +17% ROI) are not only very close but have a positive flat-bet return.

On all-weather, watch Carroll in routes. He is 10 wins from 33 starts in route races, second in behind only Loveberry, with a strong +48% ROI.


Rivelli leads the trainer standings as emphatically as Loveberry leads the jockey standings. He has 55 wins (151 starts, 36%), which puts him 35 clear of second-place Brittany Vanden Berg (20 wins, 62 starts, 32%).

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Trainer Larry Rivelli. (Photo courtesy of Fasig-Tipton)

The next few who are getting away with more prices.

In third, Michele Boyce (15 wins, 44 starts, 34%) wins at a similar percentage as the top two, but her +64% ROI puts her miles ahead from a betting perspective. Christopher Davis (15 wins, 44 starts, 34%, +24% ROI) and Fernando Bahena (10 wins, 47 starts, 21%, +120% ROI) also slip under the radar.

Even Rivelli gets away with prices on the turf. Despite his reputation as more of a Polytrack trainer, he has 20 wins from 61 starts on grass, has a 80% in-the-money rate, and even shows a +4% ROI.  

Also, watch out for Doug Matthews on grass. He has only made nine starts on the lawn, but with four wins (including two 25-1 winners) and four more underneath finishes, his horses show up.

At a Glance

For more information about trends at racetracks all over the country, read the latest At a Glance reports, only on Brisnet!