Homeracing

Horses to play in Belmont Park, Keeneland carryovers

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

October 17th, 2021

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson analyzes a pair of Sunday carryovers at Belmont Park and Keeneland.

Belmont Park, Race 4: $57,736 Pick 6 carryover (2:11 p.m. ET)

If you’re a fan of multi-race wagers with non-jackpot carryovers, you’ll want to check out Sunday’s $1 Pick 6 at Belmont Park, where a $57,736 prize pool will be dispersed among all winning bettors.

One of the trickiest Pick 6 legs to analyze is Race 4, a $30,000 claimer. #4 Texas Swing (8-5) is favored to win the one-mile dirt challenge, but the son of Curlin looks tough to trust at a short price. The third-place finisher from the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) hasn’t cracked the trifecta in two starts against allowance company this season, earning modest Brisnet Speed ratings of 79 and 74. It’s unclear whether descending into the claiming ranks will be sufficient to trigger a turnaround.

A logical alternative is #1 Road to Success (7-2). Runner-up in a $25,000 claimer racing 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga last month, Road to Success has plenty of tactical speed and should appreciate cutting back to a one-turn mile. The 88 Brisnet Speed rating he posted at Saratoga is strong, so… why not take a shot singling Road to Success? If Texas Swing fails to recapture his best form, Road to Success should be perfectly poised to steal the show at a nice price.

Keeneland, Race 9: $17,574 Super High 5 carryover (5:16 p.m. ET)

An overflow field of 16 horses (including four also-eligibles) will face the starter in this $20,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting seven furlongs on the main track. Suffice to say, it’s tough to narrow down the contenders, which makes pursuing the $17,574 carryover in the $1 Super High 5 a bit tricky.

The slight favorite on the morning line is #4 Dawson Springs (4-1). After finishing far back in a pair of Ellis Park maiden special weights (including one in which future Grade 1 winner Juju’s Map took home top honors), Dawson Springs showed improvement in a $20,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs, dueling for the lead before settling for third place.

The 70 Brisnet Speed rating Dawson Springs received tops Sunday’s field, but Dawson Springs was weakening down the homestretch at Churchill, so stretching out over seven furlongs is a question mark.

Who are the other logical contenders? #7 My Zip Zip (9-2) finished second in her debut for a $30,000 tag racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf course. The daughter of Mohaymen is eligible to improve while switching surfaces and dropping in class for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, who wins at a 23% rate with second-time starters.

#10 Reid’s Fangirl (9-2) boasts solid credentials, too. She posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 68 and 69 in a pair of maiden special weights sprinting five furlongs over the Canterbury Park turf course. As a daughter of Bayern out of an Into Mischief mare, Reid’s Fangirl is bred to handle dirt, and trainer McLean Robertson strikes at a 40% rate with horses racing at the maiden claiming level for the first time.

#8 Tinsel (8-1) and #11 Keino (8-1) are likewise descending in class for trainers who excel with the move to maiden claiming company. Both are second-time starters eligible to improve off their debuts.

Tickets like the following ought to stand a chance at deciphering the winning combination:

$1 Super High 5: 4 with 7,10 with 7,8,10,11 with 7,8,10,11 with 3,7,8,9,10,11 ($36)
$1 Super High 5: 7,10 with 4 with 7,8,10,11 with 7,8,10,11 with 3,7,8,9,10,11 ($36)
Total: $72

In the event of scratches, consider adding #15 Simply Complicated (10-1) and #16 Joezine (8-1) to the bottom of tickets.

Good luck!

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