Homeracing

Horses to rely on in the Mar. 2 Pick 6 carryovers at Mahoning and Turf Paradise

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

March 2nd, 2021

As usual, Tuesday's racing action is highlighted by a pair of Pick 6 jackpot carryovers at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise.

Both sequences have come up competitive, with a particularly compelling group of runners taking center stage at Mahoning. Let’s check out the details:

Mahoning Valley: Buckeye Pick 6

Carryover amount: $63,860
Base bet: 20 cents
Sequence starts: Race 3, 1:40 p.m. ET
Number of entries: 61 (10.2 per race)

Short fields aren’t uncommon at Mahoning Valley, but Tuesday’s Buckeye Pick 6 sequence has come up undeniably tough with an average of more than 10 horses per race. Adding to the challenge is the unpredictable nature of the track, likely brought on by ever-varying winter weather. On one day, speed can be dominant; on the next, outside closers might win race after race.

Monday’s track was muddy, but at least it seemed fair, with horses winning from a wide variety of positions. Whether this will remain the case on Tuesday is unclear; a drying-out track on Saturday gave a significant advantage to speed horses, producing six entirely or essentially gate-to-wire winners from eight races, and similar conditions could emerge on Tuesday.

If speed does thrive on Tuesday, then the most valuable horse in the entire Pick 6 sequence might be #3 Natalia’s Temple (6-1) in Race 8, a $5,000 claiming race for fillies and mares which have never won two races. The daughter of Temple City showed excellent tactical speed when beaten just a neck over this track and class level on Feb. 16, earning a competitive 69 Brisnet Speed rating.

There are a dozen runners entered in Race 8, but the field contains surprisingly little pace on paper. If Natalia’s Temple gets out in front under apprentice jockey Yarmarie Correa, she can lead all the way to win at a very nice price.

Turf Paradise: Grand Canyon Pick 6

Carryover amount: $7,354
Base bet: 20 cents
Sequence starts: Race 5, 4:46 p.m. ET
Number of entries: 53 (8.8 per race)

The Grand Canyon Pick 6 carryover was building steadily until a string of longshot winners on Wednesday prompted a payout of $538,690.34 to one winning bettor. Thus, the pot reset to zero for Monday’s sequence, which saw four winning favorites generate a modest payoff of $272.36 and a fresh jackpot carryover of $7,354.

Over the last several weeks, favorites have been winning at a roughly 50% clip in Grand Canyon Pick 6 races, so on a typical day we can expect to see the Pick 6 produce three victorious favorites. One of the most reliable candidates in Tuesday’s sequence is surely #8 Avalon King (2-1) in Race 6, an $8,500 claiming event for non-winners of three races lifetime.

The race is slated to be held over 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf course, which should suit Avalon King just fine. The son of Heatseeker has tactical speed, which he put to good use when finishing third by one length over this course and class level on Feb. 10. This effort produced a sharp 78 Brisnet Speed rating (the best last-out figure in Tuesday’s field), and since pacesetters went 2-for-2 in Monday’s grass races at Turf Paradise, Avalon King’s tactical speed should be an asset. He’ll be tough to beat at a short price and looks like a logical horse to single.

Good luck!

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