Horses to single in Arlington's $18,359 Pick 8 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

September 5th, 2021

It’s hard to pick eight winners in a row, which is why the carryover for Arlington Park’s 20-cent Pick 8 wager has built to $18,359 for Sunday’s card.

Featuring a modest takeout rate of 15%, the Pick 8 is a traditional multi-race wager that splits its carryover pool among all winning bettors—no unique winning ticket required. It’s a solid betting proposition, though ticket costs can get pricey when you’re trying to pick eight consecutive winners. Sunday’s sequence (first post time 3:28 p.m. ET) attracted 59 horses (7.4 per race), which equates to 7,451,136 possible outcomes.

But never fear! We’ve identified a pair of possible singles to bookend the Pick 8, giving you a head start on betting the sequence in a budget-friendly manner:

Race 1: $5,000 Claiming: #1 Ned Christie (9-5)

After finishing third in his debut sprinting for a $10,000 tag at Arlington, Ned Christie relished dropping in class and stretching out in distance for a one-mile, $6,250 maiden claimer on Aug. 21. The four-year-old gelding dashed to the front and pulled away during the second half of the race to dominate by 6 1/4 lengths.

Ned Christie’s reward was a 73 Brisnet Speed rating, higher than the figures his five Sunday rivals have been posting in recent starts. There isn’t a crazy amount of speed in this compact field, so if Ned Christie secures the lead from the rail draw, he can post another confident victory for hot jockey/trainer duo E. T. Baird and Larry Rivelli.

Race 8: Allowance: #1 You Split Tens (7-5)

You Split Tens fired a big shot when tackling a $10,000 starter optional claimer over the Arlington Polytrack in July, carving out the pace and seizing a daylight lead in midstretch before crossing the wire second by a neck. The race marked You Split Tens’ first start at Arlington since the summer of 2020, and the result was an excellent 85 Brisnet Speed rating—easily the highest last-out figure posted by any horse in Sunday’s field.

Since You Split Tens has weakened in his last two starts over 6 1/2 furlongs, cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs for Sunday’s test can help his chances. If You Split Tens breaks on top from the rail draw, he may prove impossible to catch—remember, pacesetters win 56% of Arlington’s 5 1/2-furlong Polytrack sprints.

Good luck!