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Homeracing

How DeRosa is betting the Belmont Stakes (and not betting American Pharoah)

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Ed DeRosa

June 5th, 2015

The Belmont Stakes concludes this year's Triple Crown trail, a road paved with chalk with favorites winning five of seven 100-point Kentucky Derby qualifying races plus the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

That is not to say that American Pharoah, who was the winning favorite for three of those aforementioned nine races including both classics, is a cinch in the Belmont Stakes, but it is to say that I expect another formful race, and while I will try to defeat the champion, I won't get too cute doing it.

I.e. I’m thinking more Victory Gallop (who I didn’t have) or Empire Maker (who I did) more than Sarava or Da Tara (don’t ask).

That leaves me with the other winners of the 100-point Derby races in the field: Florida Derby winner Materiality, TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial Stakes winner Frosted, and U.A.E. Derby winner Mubtaahij.

As the longest shot of the trio, Mubtaahij is my top pick on perceived value, and I will bet him across the board, but my main action will surround getting one of Frosted, Materiality, or Mubtaahij in the win spot--hopefully ending a good multi-race bet and/or keying a good in-race score.

For in-race betting, my plan is thus (my Preakness strategy returned $246.25 on $64 wagered). 1 unit = $.50

10 units across the board on #1 Mubtaahij (30 units)

2 unit exacta box 1-6-8 (12 units)

2 unit exacta box 1-3-6-7-8 (12 units)

2 unit exacta wheel 1-6-8 with ALL (42 units)

1 unit trifecta wheel 1-6-8 with 1-5-6-8 with ALL (54 units)

1 unit trifecta wheel 1-6-8 with ALL with 1-5-6-8 (54 units)

1 unit trifecta box 1-3-5-6-7-8 (120 units)

TOTAL WAGERED: 324 units

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