Homeracing

How DeRosa Will Win Money Betting the Breeders' Cup at TwinSpires.com

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

October 31st, 2015

There are two kinds of bad days betting horses: there are bad days when you suck and there are bad days when you're just plain wrong.

2015 Breeders' Cup Friday falls into the latter category. I was right about Liam's Map (whoopee!) and not much else. Two of the Breeders' Cup winners were "X" picks for me despite Ryan Moore getting a leg up from Aidan O'Brien on one (Hit It A Bomb in the Juvenile Turf) and the top pick of my very sharp colleague James Scully (Stopchargingmaria in the Distaff) on the other.

So, yeah, I got some races wrong, but at least I didn't suck. Sucking is when you feel you handicapped well, made some good picks, and still walk out a loser. Sucking is worse than being wrong. As my Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge partner said to me at the end of our donut day, "At least we didn't suffer any bad beats." He's Mr. Brightside.

We're down but not out, and that's one of the good things about the current Breeders' Cup race order is you can't get too crazy on Friday. A) you're too much looking forward to Saturday, anyway, and B) four races is just enough  to whet the appetite--get some multi-race wagers going, try a few spot plays, etc.--without any temptation to break the bank.

Being wrong gives you a chance to regroup and feel good about being right the next day. Sucking leaving you to wonder what if and inhibits your ability to handicap properly. We're ready for today, and I have the ABC grid to prove it.

As you can see, I have stronger opinionis in some races than others! Given how the day can play out, my plan from a multi-race wager standpoint is to key around the races in which I have only one or two "A" picks and not worry about the "B" or "C" tabs in those races (e.g. Juvenile Fillies, Turf, and Classic). The exception is that since the Turf-Classic features consecutive single "A" picks, I'll go deeper but one of the As will have to win.

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