How Ed DeRosa is betting the Preakness Stakes

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Ed DeRosa

May 16th, 2015

Betting this year’s Preakness Stakes is sort of like a Choose Your Own Adventure book.

“If you want American Pharoah to win, select #4”; “If you want Firing Line to win, select #1”; “If you select Bodhisattva to win your quest has been vanquished”.

The most likely winner of the Preakness is American Pharoah and the most likely spoilers are the horses right behind him in the Kentucky Derby: Firing Line and Dortmund.

But how likely is it that they all complete the tri again? It’s certainly the most likely trifecta box, but it’s not worth betting, so I’m taking the following approaches:

  1. If American Pharoah wins then either Danzig Moon or Divining Rod also have to be in the trifecta
  2. If Dortmund or Firing Line wins then Danzig Moon also has to be in the tri
  3. I’ll bet Danzig Moon across the board

This is somewhat subject to change, but the sketch of my wagers is

  • Exacta key box 1 with 4, 7 (press w/ the 1 on top)
  • Exacta key box 4 with 1, 2, 8
  • Trifecta key 1 with 4, 7 with ALL; 1 with ALL with 4, 7
  • Trifecta part wheel 1, 2, 8 with 4 with ALL; 1, 2, 8 with ALL with 4
  • Superfecta  1 with 4, 7 with 2, 4, 7, 8 with ALL; 1 with 2, 8 with 4, 7 with ALL

If it comes 1-2-8 or 1-8-2 then I’ll just have to lose.

Good luck and safe trips to all in the $1,500,000 Preakness Stakes