How I will be playing the Delta Jackpot Pick 4

Profile Picture: James Scully

November 21st, 2015

Delta Downs will offer a $200,000 Pick 4 guarantee on races 4-7 Saturday. The $1 million Jackpot (G3) anchors the sequence and serves as a points’ race for next year’s Kentucky Derby.

Here’s my analysis of the four races and a couple of recommended tickets:

Race 4: A contentious field of Louisiana-bred juveniles is entered and outside posts have performed well in one-mile races since the meet began five weeks ago, according to the Track Stats in the Ultimate Past Performances. Berniestrike (#6) and G’s Josh (#7) bring improving form and good tactical speed into the race, and Sea Vow (#10) figures to be the one to catch from his outermost post. I’ll use the trio on a back-up ticket and add last-out stakes winner and morning-line favorite Our Rapidash (#4) and potentially live maiden Mick (#8) to the mix on the main ticket.

Race 5: It was probably a savvy move to scratch Departing (#1) from the $200,000 Fayette Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup Friday program in favor of an easier and more lucrative spot ($250,000). A multiple Grade 2-winning millionaire, the 5-year-old gelding exits an encouraging second in the September 26 Lukas Classic and is 2-for-2 at the one-mile distance. He appears quite formidable. I give Mister Pollard (#6), who should be forwardly-placed, the best chance at an upset off his last two efforts. Rise Up (#5) and Cougar Ridge (#7) can’t be completely dismissed as well.

Race 6: No surprise if La Appssionata (#6) dominates this race as expected; the Steve Asmussen-trained daughter of Bernardini has captured both starts in convincing fashion, including a seven-length romp in the October 23 My Trusty Cat at Delta. My Trusty Cat runner-up Above Fashion (#4) is the only rival with decent BRIS numbers and owns the best chance at an upset.

Race 7: Forevamo (#1) exits a nice score in the October 24 Jean Lafitte, breaking his maiden in the local prep for the Jackpot, and the improving son of Uncle Mo should have more to offer today for Al Stall Jr. Colby Hernandez is riding well, winning multiple races on the first two days at Fair Grounds (Thursday & Friday), and Forevamo will be saving ground from his inside post before rallying into contention. I’ll give him a slight edge over expected pacesetter Found Money (#7), who could prove difficult to reel in, and will save on a back-up ticket with Champagne runner-up Sunny Ridge (#3) and expected favorite Exaggerator (#9). The latter has a class edge, finishing fourth most recently in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he trained hard for that spot and has shipped back and forth to California in the three-week interim. I’ll look for more next year from the Curlin colt.

.50 Pick 4 Tickets (Races 4-7; $46 budget)

4,6,7,8,10 with 1,5,6,7 with 4,6 with 1,7 ($40)

6,7,10 with 1 with 6 with 1,3,7,9 ($6)

Photo of Forevamo winning the Jean Lafitte courtesy of Delta/Coady Photography

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