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Homeracing

How sire stats and racing records can uncover winners

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

December 7th, 2022

Sometimes, combining a little pedigree knowledge with the sire stats and performance data found in Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances is all you need to uncover a lucrative betting payday.

The 2022 Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct provided a perfect opportunity for pedigree-focused handicappers to cash. The Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier attracted seven lightly raced juveniles to race 1 1/8 miles over a sloppy track, and predicting which horses would thrive over the wet going wasn't difficult.

The Brisnet past performances painted a simple picture. Only three horses had previously won over wet footing: Tuskegee Airmen, Arctic Arrogance, and Dubyuhnell. And among the three, only Arctic Arrogance and Dubyuhnell had won over a sloppy or muddy track marked as "sealed," the label they would encounter in the Remsen. Tuskegee Airmen achieved his win over an unsealed track labeled good.

Sire stats provided another important clue to the most likely winner of the Remsen. Dubyuhnell boasted the best wet-track breeding in the race. His sire, Good Magic, finished second in the 2018 Kentucky Derby (G1) over a sloppy track, and Brisnet data identified the progeny of Good Magic as impressive 25% winners over off footing.

Good Magic hails from one of the most influential mud-loving sire lines in modern pedigrees. Good Magic's sire, Curlin, won the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) in the slop and famously sired the mud-loving Exaggerator, who splashed his way to victories in the 2016 Preakness (G1) and Haskell (G1).

Curlin, in turn, is a son of Smart Strike, whose major wet track winners include two-time champion Lookin At Lucky and 2017 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Battle of Midway, who ran third in the 2017 Kentucky Derby over a wet fast track. Lookin At Lucky is the sire of Country House, who upset the 2019 Kentucky Derby over a sloppy track.

It didn't take a creative handicapper to conclude Dubyuhnell was most likely to thrive over sloppy footing in the Remsen, with Arctic Arrogance and Tuskegee Airmen looming as the other key contenders.

In the end, the race unfolded exactly as the past performances and pedigree stats suggested. Dubyuhnell outdueled Arctic Arrogance to win by half a length, with Tuskegee Airmen rounding out the top three. Every $2 win bet on Dubyuhnell returned $10.00, while the $2 exacta paid $37.40 and the $2 trifecta yielded $77.00.

Suffice to say, it pays to know your pedigrees and keep an eye on Brisnet data.

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