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Homeracing

How To Bet $8,756 Arlington Pick 5 Carryover

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

August 3rd, 2017

What better a reason to use the FREE Arlington International Race Course Premium Past Performances from Brisnet.com than a Pick 5 carryover at Chicago's premiere racing destination? There is $8,756 in the Thursday, August 3, sequence that begins with race 4 at 4:11 p.m. ET.

It's a manageable sequence that puts handicappers to the rest immediately, as they will have to decide what to do with #1 Shogood, who at 9-to-5 on the morning line figures to be the shortest price in the sequence especially following the scratch of #2 Tell All You Know, the 2-to-1 second choice in here who also has some speed. Even though Shogood sports a tactical advantage speed wise, I can't not use #3 Reigning Catfish on some tickets given he figures to be at least twice the price as the favorite and has been consistently faster on Polytrack. The 0-for-4 turf record is a concern, but if #6 Singingintheheat applies pressure from the outside then this one can get going late to win.

The second leg has another likely obvious favorite in #3 Air Turbulence, whose 2-to-1 morning line price augers a short price here, but she is pace compromised in the short field. However, no pace is a lot different than having to chase down a lone leader, so it's not as bad as it could be especially with top jockey Valdivia aboard.

The third leg gives its biggest look to #4 Vinnardini, who figures to make the lead, which is good enough for a 50% strike rate going six furlongs at Arlington (of the 80 six-furlong races this year, 40 have been won in gate-to-wire fashion). #1 Cairn benefits from a rail draw.

Leg 4 puts me on my best bet of the sequence, #2 Husky Clipper, who is a generous 7-to-2 second choice on the morning line and looks a more likely winner to me than 5-to-2 morning line favorite #3 Aim To Tease. The price could hold given the connections are winless on turf, but that also makes it tough to pin all hopes on him.

I'm most confident about leg 5 and will only use #7 Bowknot Billy and #8 Sudden Urges on all tickets except a super back up that goes A-A-A-A into this leg.

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