Homeracing

How to bet against the Preakness 146 favorite

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

May 14th, 2021

A field of 10 will aim for racing glory in Saturday’s $1 million Preakness S. (G1) at Pimlico. #3 Medina Spirit (9-5), the slight morning-line choice after finishing first in the Kentucky Derby (G1), could very well be the favorite when the gates open for the second leg of the Triple Crown. The Florida-bred ran his best race to date at Churchill Downs two weeks prior and will be as fit as any horse in the field. But for those who are not in love with the son of Protonico, there are many other alternatives to pursue in the Preakness.

Potential Preakness wagers beating the favorite:

  • $1 trifecta key 6 with 2,3,4,5,10 ($20)
  • 50-cent trifecta 6,10 with 2,3,4,5,6,10 with 2,3,4,5,6,10 ($20)
  • 20-cent superfecta 6,10 with 6,10 with 2,3,4,5 with all ($11.20)

#6 Rombauer (12-1) is my top pick as I think he will be rounding up to a prime showing in his local debut. The late-running son of Twirling Candy was a solid third in the Blue Grass S. (G2) most recently and gives me every impression of a colt sitting on a big effort.

#10 Concert Tour (5-2) looked special in dominating the Rebel S. (G2) two back, but he left me with a lot of doubt following his third-place effort in the subsequent Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. If he repeats his Rebel tour de force, then Concert Tour will be untouchable. But that is a very big if.

Lecomte S. (G3) victor #5 Midnight Bourbon (5-1) is among the best of his generation and is drawing a lot of buzz ahead of Saturday. A major concern for me, though, is that Mike Smith opted off the handsome colt to guide Concert Tour. Picking up Irad is never a bad thing, though.

#4 Crowded Trade (10-1) has done little wrong in his three-race career and wouldn’t be a shocker for Chad Brown. The chestnut son of More Than Ready was a solid third in the Wood Memorial S. (G2) in his latest venture, and further improvement is expected.

Even deep closer #2 Keepmeinmind (15-1) appears to be rounding into better form following a decent Derby try and makes a bit of sense. I didn’t love how the Diodoro trainee was handled earlier in the season, but he surely got a lot of fitness from his 10-furlong outing in Kentucky two weeks prior. If the pace totally collapses, then he becomes a viable option at a big price.

I will use both Rombauer and Concert Tour in my multi-race wagers, and each will be used on top in my vertical gimmicks, as well.

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