How to bet Keeneland on opening day of 2016 fall meeting

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Ed DeRosa

October 7th, 2016

Before getting down to the brass tacks of actually handicapping the opening day 10-race card on Friday, October 7, at Keeneland, we mused on some general wagering strategies for the 17-day autumn meeting, and now that we have 10 races handicapped, it's time to put those strategies to use, and the know when to single falls on the shortest price of the day: #1 A.P. Indian in the Phoenix Stakes, a prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. We need the single, too, because the races around it--including the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades (click for FREE Ultimate Past Performances) for two-year-old fillies--are tough.

In the Alcibiades, I leaned on #14 Daddys Lil Darling considering all the speed, but it's not a strong lean given the post and she'll be bet off the win last out that might have been slop aided. If the speed does hold, though, I like #6 Caroline Test to be the one to stay considering how well she's run against males at Ellis Park and potential turf future star Lull at Kentucky Downs. Others expected to be running late are #8 Dream Dancing and #11 Diadura. The inside draw could benefit #4 Dancing Rags if she gets room to get first run on the closers.

THE PLAY: race 7, $0.50 late Pick 4: 1, 3, 6, 7, 9, 10 with 1 with 4, 6, 8, 11, 14 with 1, 2, 4, 7, 9, 10 ($90)

Below is my ABC grid for the day. I'm mostly a multi-race player guy, but those players dipping in the Keeneland pools this weekend should get involved in some $.50 trifectas considering the 3-million Points Trifecta Triple promotion.