How to bet Keeneland's $3,385 Super High 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

October 9th, 2021

It didn’t take long for the 2021 Keeneland fall meet to produce its first carryover. Opening day saw the $1 Super High 5 go unclaimed, generating a non-jackpot carryover of $3,385 for Saturday’s card.

The carryover will be dispersed in Race 11, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for two-year-olds. The field is formidable from a handicapping perspective; 11 horses have been entered (which equates to 55,440 possible outcomes), and many of the entrants have never run beyond a sprint distance. Assembling a winning ticket on a reasonable budget will be difficult.

But since we’re always up for a handicapping challenge, we’ll give it a shot. We’ll start by favoring the stoutly bred #7 Giant Game (4-1), a son of Giant’s Causeway and a half-brother to a pair of Grade 1-placed route runners. Giant Game ran well in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs last month, rallying after a slow start to finish third behind Great Escape and Seal Beach.

Both Great Escape and Seal Beach are entered to race in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) earlier on Keeneland’s Saturday card, so it’s safe to say Giant Game is exiting a quality maiden event. Trainer Dale Romans wins at a 17% rate with second-time starters, and at a 20% rate with horses transitioning from sprints to routes, so I’m optimistic Giant Game is sitting on a winning performance at Keeneland.

#4 Call Me Midnight (10-1) and #6 Surfer Dude (5-1) ran fourth and fifth in the above-mentioned Churchill Downs maiden heat and are logical contenders while stretching out in distance at Keeneland. Surfer Dude in particular offers appeal, since the son of Curlin was produced by the Grade 1-winning router Tiz Miz Sue, giving Surfer Dude a pedigree geared top and bottom toward success running long.

So if we key Giant Game on top, and emphasize Surfer Dude underneath, we should be able to spread deep for the remaining slots. #3 Hitting Bombs (9-2), #5 Norgay (6-1), #9 Bourbon On Fire (10-1), #10 Let My People Go (8-1), and #11 Gilded Age (8-1) are the others we’ll use in varying strengths.

$1 Super High 5: 7 with 6 with 3,4,11 with 3,4,11 with 3,4,5,9,10,11 ($24)
$1 Super High 5: 7 with 3,4,11 with 6 with 3,4,11 with 3,4,5,9,10,11 ($24)
Total: $48

Good luck!