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Homeracing

How to bet on TwinSpires the Emerald Downs Pick 5 carryover

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

August 19th, 2016

There is a $15,154 carryover on the Pick 5 at Emerald Downs, and we’ll know where we stand on the sequence early, as I’m 2x1 to kick things off before going 3x6x4 to closer it out.

I have #2 Gold Locket as the most likely winner in the sequence, cutting back from a two-turn mile to six furlongs and dropping back to the bottom $2,500 claiming level where he has won two of four this year. He is winless in 7 starts at 6 furlongs, but that’s more happenstance than anything considering he does have wins at 5 ½ and 6 ½ furlongs.

I am extremely confident that I can advance past leg 1 by using both #1 Look Above and #6 Fullshot. Their upper 70s Brisnet.com Speed Ratings outclass this group, and if Fullshot’s early pace advantage doesn’t hold up then Look Above will be the one coming late.

The waters get deeper in the final three legs, and hopefully we’ll find some prices after starting with relative chalk. #2 Alpine Heir is interesting in race 5, drawing back inside second off the layoff after a wide trip when taking money last time. The 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Fooled Again doesn’t have to win leg 4, race 6. The fast gate-to-wire victory sticks out here, but #1 Daytona Beach could make things interesting from the rail, and both #7 Dare Me Devil and #10 Mr. Takahashi can make things interesting late if Fooled Again doesn’t get away. A maiden closes things out, and #8 Loki’s Humor is interesting on debut for a 14% first-out sire and a dam who’s thrown two winners from as many starters.

Emerald Downs, race 3, $0.50 Pick 5 part wheel:

1, 6 with 2 with 2, 3, 5 with 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 with 2, 5, 6, 8 ($72)

1, 6 with 2 with 3, 5 with 3 with ALL ($16)

1, 6 with 1, 2, 3, 6 with 3, 5 with 3 with 2, 5, 6, 8 ($32)

$120 total

Another way to look at it is I’m wagering $92 on #2 in leg 2, $52 each on #s 1 & 6 in leg 1, $48 on #3 in leg 4, and $40 each on #s 3 & 5 in leg 3. It’s a good exercise to see how much is actually riding on each horse to make sure your ticket structure matches your opinion.

GOOD LUCK!

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