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Homeracing

How to bet Pick 4s on Whitney and Groupie Doll days

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

August 6th, 2016

Ellis Park and Saratoga Race Course both put together fantastic cards for two of their biggest days, and as competitive as the early races are at both venues, it's impossible not to look ahead at the riches that could await if you pick 4 to close out the racing at both tracks.

The Ellis late Pick 4 is on races 7-10 and includes the Groupie Doll Stakes as well as a two-year-old stakes to kick things off plus two full fields on the turf. The Saratoga late Pick 4 features all stakes with the Whitney the headliner of the races 8-11 sequence.

I'm relying on the favorite (Ahh Chocolate) in the Groupie Doll at Ellis and trying to beat the favorite (Frosted) at Saratoga. It's not that I don't think Frosted can't win or isn't even the most likely winner, but it's a competitive sequence, and I think more people will single Frosted than his win odds indicate. If I absolutely loved him I'd go deeper in the other legs, but I like my opinions surrounding beating Frosted so I'll take a shot that either Effinex or Noble Bird can get the job done--both are Grade 1 winners at this distance.

As for the Groupie Doll, Ahh Chocolate isn't invincible, but the post and pace of the race are both in her favor--two variables I like to have going for my single when it's the chalk. I'm also hoping people are less inclined to single a favorite in a big field (11 horses) and maybe I can catch my price elsewhere. One of those places will be the Juvenile Stakes (race 7) to kick things off where even the debut runner has a chance against this group.

Here's how I'm playing the aforementioned Pick 4s:

Saratoga, race 8, $0.50 Pick 4 part wheel

3, 5, 6, 7 with 1, 4, 6, 7, 10 with 5, 6 with 1, 3, 4, 9, 10 ($100)

Ellis, race 7, $0.50 Pick 4 part wheel

ALL with 1, 2, 10 with 6 with 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10 ($45)

ALL with ALL with 6 with 5 ($20)

ALL with 1, 2, 10 with 1, 5, 6, 8, 10 with 5 ($37.50)

Here is my full ABC grid for Ellis:

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