How to Bet Saturday’s Beverly D. at Arlington

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Noel Michaels

August 10th, 2019

Race 9 on the Arlington Million card on Saturday, August 10, card will be the secondary-feature, the $600,000 Beverly D. Stakes (G1) for fillies and mares to be run at 1 3/16 miles on the turf. The race drew an eight-horse field topped by the country’s top female turf horse, Sistercharlie trained by Chad Brown. The imposing presence of five-time Grade 1 winner Sistercharlie was enough to keep the field size down in the Beverly D. this year, and definitely discouraged many European horses from entering. With such a big favorite, you’ll need to make a decision whether you are for, or against Sistercharlie when it comes to placing your bets in the Beverly D. If you are against her, your options at good prices will be plentiful with several horses likely to be offering good odds. It’s tough to be against Sistercharlie, who looms the toughest favorite of the day and the most likely winner on the Arlington Million Day 12-race card at Arlington. ANALYSIS You are either for or against Sistercharlie here, and as a handicapper you are supposed to find ways to beat the favorite. Nevertheless, there just doesn’t appear to be any chinks in the armor for Sistercharlie, who won this race last year and appears to show no signs of stopping. In the absence of a first-string European challenger in this field, which there isn’t, go ahead and eat chalk and take Sistercharlie. Instead of win bets at less than even-money, attempt to make money in other ways with this race, such as exactas, trifectas, and by singling Sistercharlie in your multi-race wagers. Key Sistercharlie (#7) (8-5) over Fleeting (#1) (5-2) and Competitionofideas (#3) (6-1) in the exactas. In the trifectas, key Sistercharlie over Fleeting, Awesometank (#2) (8-1) and Competitionofideas. Play an extra $2 Chad Brown straight tri, Sistercarlie over Competitionofideas over Thais (#8) (20-1). WAGERS $5 Exacta key 7 / 1, 3 = $10 $2 Trifecta key 7 / 1, 2, 3 = $12 $2 Straight trifecta 7 / 3 / 8 = $2 Single Sistercharlie in your multi-race wagers Here’s a brief look at this year’s Beverly D. field: FLEETING (#1) (5-2) has been in the money in three Group 1 or Group 2 stakes races in a row in England and Ireland for trainer Aidan O’Brien, and jockey Ryan Moore is here for the ride. No questions about the connections, or about this horse’s high quality. The main question here is if the 1 3/16-mile distance is too short for Fleeting, whose last three outings have all been at 1 1/2 miles. Cuts back to a distance that perhaps is not in her wheelhouse and looks like the best of the rest, but the real question is whether or not she can beat Sistercharlie at 1 3/16 miles? AWESOMETANK (#2) (8-1) is a speedy English turf filly who seems to dance every dance and has plenty of solid efforts against Group 3 or listed-type of competition. Presumably the connections make the trip here for the firm turf, or for a distance they think will suit their chances, but their ability level mostly seems to be a shade lower than these. On the plus side, her best Timeform ratings of 107 stack-up in the same ballpark as the other Euro invaders in this race, while her price is likely to be better. On the negative side, she’ll be up on or close to the pace with plenty of company up front from Chad Brown’s speedy duo of likely pace-setter Thais and likely pace-presser, Competitionofideas. COMPETITIONOFIDEAS (#3) (6-1) is Chad Brown’s “other” horse in this race and is definitely not too shabby in the role of “second fiddle.” Competitionofideas is a Grade 1 winner in her own right at 1 1/4 miles when she won the American Oaks (G1) at Santa Anita Park last December 29. Since then she has tried hard but settled for second third times in a row in the Beaugay Stakes (G3) and New York Stakes (G2) at Belmont and then the Matchmaker Stakes (G3) at Monmouth, twice losing to yet another Chad Brown turfer, Homerique. Can’t count her out in terms of the exactas with Javier Castellano aboard, but has yet to prove she is up to the class level of her barnmate, Sistercharlie. OH SO TERRIBLE (#4) (30-1) is a three-time winner on the Arlington turf course and gets perennial Arlington leading rider Jose Valdivia Jr. aboard, but her last win was an allowance optional claiming race at one mile and she was soundly beaten when sixth last time out in the Modesty Handicap (G3), which is local Beverly D. prep race. REMEMBER DAISY (#5) (30-1) exits a well-beaten four-place finish in the local Beverly D. prep race in the Modesty Handicap (G3) after she stumbled out of the gate that day to lose her best chance. Jockey Mitchell Murrell is the hottest jockey in the country during the early stages of the month of August and currently leads the Arlington jockey standings as he looks for his first career graded win. He’ll likely have to keep looking, however, because Remember Daisy seems a few notches below Grade 1 caliber competition with her best win to date coming in a Louisiana-bred stakes at Fair Grounds last November. MAGIC WAND (#6) (3-1) certainly would be an obvious contender in this race if she runs for trainer Aiden O’Brien, but is cross-entered in the richer and longer Arlington Million and the connections are reportedly leaning toward facing the boys instead of running in this spot. If she does run in the Beverly D. she’ll be a strong factor based on her close third in the Man o’ War Stakes (G1) at Belmont this spring, and her second-place finish behind Bricks and Mortar his January in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1). She finished fourth behind Sistercharlie in their only meeting so far which came in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. SISTERCHARLIE (#7) (8-5) is the defending Beverly D. champion for trainer Chad Brown, who led an all-Chad Brown trifecta in this race last year. Since then she added a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and an Eclipse Award championship as top female turf horse. Her title defense began in winning fashion last time out with a strong performance over her red-hot barn mates Homerique and Rushing Fall in Saratoga’s Diana (G1). Appears to be as good as ever now as a five-year-old. Regular rider Johnny Velazquez is in for the mount, and Johhny V. learned long ago that the only way you get Sistercharlie beat is by letting her lag too far behind the pace. He doesn’t let that happen these days. All systems “go” for the favorite. THAIS (#9) (20-1) is one for the Chad Brown fans to have on their tickets. Her career best race was in this race last year when she rounded out the all-Chad Brown trifecta behind Sistercharlie and Fourstar Crook. She was beaten less that two lengths in this race last year, but the problem has been that she has not run another race as good since then. If you think Chad Brown can once again sweep the trifectas, then use her underneath in this race. Otherwise, she’s probably in a little too tough versus these. Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard adds to the appeal if you believe she is a potential horse for the course and can pull off another in-the-money finish. PHOTO: Sistercharlie (c) Coady Photography/Arlington Park